Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 417 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 00Z Fri May 24 2024 - 00Z Sun May 26 2024 ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains on Thursday and the Central/Southern Plains on Saturday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Western Ohio Valley, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Plains on Friday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys on Thursday... ... There are Heat Advisories over southern Texas... On Thursday evening, a front extending from the Northern/Central Plains to the Central Rockies will move eastward to the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and westward to the Central High Plains by Saturday evening. As the boundary moves across the Plains, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of Nebraska and western Iowa. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over the region. Furthermore, there will be another region with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the rest of the Plains and parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is an increased threat of hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the Northern/Central/Southern Plains. Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to develop over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Further, another front extending from Maine across the Northeast Coast to the Mid-Atlantic, then westward to the Tennessee Valley, will get reinforced by a third front moving across the Great Lakes by Friday afternoon. The boundary will create two areas of severe thunderstorms over Maine and parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over two areas: one over Maine and a second over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, some showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Friday, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop as the front over the Plains moves onto the Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Western Ohio Valley and Middle/Lower Mississippi. The hazards associated with these strong to severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there will be an added threat of hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Also, on Friday, the threat of excessive rainfall will decrease slightly with two areas of a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi, Tennessee Valleys, and Central Appalachians and the second over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes/Western Ohio Valley. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Moreover, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop ahead of a dryline over parts of the Central/Southern Plains on Saturday. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains on Saturday. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. The showers and thunderstorms will also produce heavy rain over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, a sub-tropical upper-level high over Mexico will aid in spawning Heat Advisories over southern Texas through Saturday. The ridging will create a dangerous early-season heat wave over south Texas, Southern Florida, and into the Central Gulf Coast. Record or near-record warm overnight temperatures will provide little to no relief to those without adequate or reliable cooling. By this weekend, record daily high temperatures and heat index readings over 115 degrees over the regions will also be possible. The heat is expected to continue next week, although some relief may reach the Gulf Coast after Memorial Day with a cold front. Check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours, especially if you encounter or are dealing with a loss of power. If you use a portable generator, do so safely to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Never use a generator inside a house, garage, or other enclosed space! Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php