Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 305 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 12Z Sat May 25 2024 - 12Z Mon May 27 2024 ...Dangerous severe weather threat forecast across parts of the central/southern Plains through tonight before the potential for strong storms shift to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys on Sunday... ...Extreme fire weather expected for south-central New Mexico with critical fire weather throughout much of the southern Rockies/High Plains today... ...Simmering heat continues across South Texas, the Gulf Coast, and southern Florida through Memorial Day... The start of this Memorial Day weekend will feature yet another round of severe weather impacting the central United States as the next storm system strengthens across the central Plains. A textbook Great Plains severe weather setup is expected as a warm front lifts to the central Plains and middle Mississippi Valley while a sharp dryline extends south of the low into the southern Plains. Discrete supercells are anticipated to develop this evening in response to an ejecting shortwave out of the Rockies as aforementioned surface boundaries provide a focus for developing thunderstorms. A few supercells may be capable of intense tornadoes, with giant hail and destructive winds also expected. By tonight, thunderstorms are expected to merge into clusters and potentially bow echos as they push eastward towards the Ozarks. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for severe thunderstorms in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and far southwest Missouri. Additionally, storms are expected to contain intense rainfall rates that could lead to scattered instances of flash flooding from the central/southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley into tonight. The low pressure system and associated storminess are expected to shift eastward on Sunday into portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Damaging wind gusts are the most likely hazards as a complex of thunderstorms progress from Missouri to Kentucky, as well as the possibility of flash flooding, hail, and a few tornadoes. The Memorial Day finale for this spring storm system will impact the eastern U.S. on Monday as low pressure swings into the Great Lakes and a strong cold front extends along the Appalachians. Showers and storms may dampen outdoor barbecues, while also containing frequent lighting, have rain, and gusty winds. Residents and visitors should remain weather aware this holiday weekend and have multiple ways of receiving warnings. West of the dryline today throughout the southern High Plains and southern Rockies will exist extremely critical fire weather conditions. Low relative humidity, gusty winds, and dry vegetation could lead to any newly formed fires to spread rapidly. Red Flag Warnings span throughout all of New Mexico, southeast Arizona, western Texas, and the western Oklahoma Panhandle. The temperature outlook for this weekend includes above average temperatures leading to a summer-like feel for much of the eastern U.S., Mid-South, and central/southern Plains as heat also begins to build back into the West by Memorial Day. Cooler temperatures are forecast to remain over the Rockies, Northwest, and north-central United States. Heat will reach oppressive levels across South Texas, the Gulf Coast, and southern Florida, with heat indices into the triple digits and the potential for daily record highs. Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect across South Texas due to heat indices rising to around 115 degrees, which could be dangerous for those spending extended amounts of time outdoors. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php