Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 409 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 00Z Sun May 26 2024 - 00Z Tue May 28 2024 ...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains on Saturday and an Enhanced Risk over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley on Sunday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Monday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys on Thursday... ... There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over southern Texas... On Saturday evening, a front extending from the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and westward to the Central High Plains will move eastward to off the Northeast Coast by Sunday evening. Also, on Saturday, a dryline extending from western Kansas southward to southwestern Texas will aid in producing showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and central Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and hail, two inches or greater over the region. Further, another added threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over the Kansas, western Missouri, and parts of northern Oklahoma. Furthermore, there will be another region with a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the southeastern Alabama and western Georgia. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to develop over parts of the southeastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, western Missouri, and extreme northeastern Oklahoma/northwestern Arkansas. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley and through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Overnight Saturday, a new front will develop over the Southern High Plains and move eastward to the Lower Great Lakes, Central/Southern Appalachians then southwestward to the Southern Plains by Monday evening. The boundary will create an area of showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of eastern Missouri and the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley from Sunday into Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes, hail, two inches or greater, and severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over parts of the region. Moreover, some showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central Appalachians from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Monday, as the front moves from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop as the front over the Plains moves onto the Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic. The hazards associated with these strong to severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes Also, on Monday, the threat of excessive rainfall will eastward to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central Appalachians from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough over the Great Basin will move eastward to the Ohio Valley by Monday. The energy will produce rain and highest elevation snow over parts of the Pacifica Northwest, Northern Intermountain Region, and Northern/Central Rockies from Saturday evening tapering off by Sunday evening. Moreover, weak onshore flow will aid in producing rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast through Monday afternoon. Furthermore, a sub-tropical upper-level high over Mexico will aid in spawning Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over southern Texas through Monday. The ridging will create a dangerous early-season heat wave over south Texas and southern Florida. Record or near-record warm overnight temperatures will provide little to no relief to those without adequate or reliable cooling. By this weekend, record daily high temperatures and heat index readings over 115 degrees over the regions will also be possible. The heat is expected to continue into Memorial Day with a cold front passing the area after Memorial Day. Check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours, especially if you encounter or are dealing with a loss of power. Drink plenty of water and avoid alcohol, wear lightweight clothing, and take regular breaks indoors or in the shade. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php