Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 00Z Mon May 27 2024 - 00Z Wed May 29 2024 ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Sunday and a Slight Risk over parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Monday... ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Tennessee Valley on Sunday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Monday and the Southern Plains on Tuesday... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over southern Texas... On Sunday evening, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley and southwestward to the Southern Plains will move to the Eastern Seaboard by Tuesday evening. The boundary will create an area of showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of eastern Missouri and the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the Lower Mississippi/Western Tennessee Valleys. Further, there will be an added threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater region over parts of the Eastern Ohio/Eastern Tennessee Valleys. Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to develop over parts of far eastern Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, and the southern third of Kentucky. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Tennessee Valley. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. In addition, another region will experience a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Wisconsin. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Monday, as the front moves from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary over the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Also, on Monday, the threat of excessive rainfall will move eastward to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast from Monday through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Tuesday, near the western portion of the front over the Southern Plains, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward, producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains on Tuesday through Tuesday night. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Northern High Plains will move eastward to the Great Lakes, reinforcing an upper-level trough by Tuesday. The energy will produce showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Plains on Sunday evening, moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Monday and into the Great Lakes by Tuesday. Moreover, a weakening front along the Pacific Northwest Coast will aid in producing rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast through Monday afternoon. Furthermore, a sub-tropical upper-level high over Mexico will aid in spawning Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over southern Texas and into the Central Gulf Coast through Memorial Day. The ridging will create a dangerous early-season heat wave over south Texas, Central Gulf Coast, and southern Florida. Record or near-record warm overnight temperatures will provide little to no relief to those without adequate or reliable cooling. High temperatures will be at or near record highs, and heat index readings over 115 degrees over the regions will also be possible. The heat is expected to continue into Memorial Day, with a cold front passing the area after Memorial Day. Check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours, especially if you encounter or are dealing with a loss of power. Drink plenty of water, avoid alcohol, wear lightweight clothing, and take regular breaks indoors or in the shade. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php