Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 12Z Wed May 29 2024 - 12Z Fri May 31 2024 ...Active central U.S. weather pattern to continue, with heavy rains, flash flooding, and severe weather possible... ...Anomalous heat continues across far southern Texas and Florida, while hot temperatures begin to build in the Southwest and interior California Valleys... The active and stormy weather pattern impacting the central U.S. is set to continue over the next few days while also expanding in coverage to include much of the Great Plains, middle and lower Mississippi Valley. For today, a cold front progressing across the Northern Rockies and central Great Basin in response to a Northwest upper trough will help spark numerous thunderstorms into the northern Plains and parts of the central High Plains. A few scattered storms could contain intense rainfall rates, hail, and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible along a lingering stationary front extending along the Gulf Coast and southern Plains, which have greater chances of producing instances of flash flooding due to thunderstorms overlapping with saturated ground conditions. As upper troughing enters the Great Plains on Thursday, even more rounds of slow-moving tumultuous thunderstorm clusters are anticipated. This leads to a broad region at risk for hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding from Kansas and eastern Colorado to north-central Texas. This activity is then forecast to gradually slide eastward on Friday to impact the ArkLaTex region, as well as extending into the mid-Mississippi Valley and southern Plains once again. Flash flooding will remain a concern due to the relatively slow-moving nature of thunderstorms occurring within a moisture rich environment. Widespread areal-averaged rainfall totals by the end of the week are forecast to add up to over 2 inches throughout much of Kansas, Oklahoma, northern Texas, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana, with localized amounts over 4 inches possible. Simmering heat is expected to continue for much of the central and southern Florida Peninsula as highs reach into the mid-90s, which may tied/break daily record highs today. Highs also returning to the upper 90s are forecast along the Rio Grande Valley of southern Texas after early morning thunderstorms. However, a larger area of hot weather will begin to build throughout the Southwest and interior California valleys by the end of the week. Afternoon temperatures into the upper 90s and triple digits can be expected. Elsewhere, high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to the Southeast will keep most areas east of the Mississippi River dry with the exception of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast today. A compact storm system will be swinging eastward over the Mid-Atlantic and produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. The main weather hazards associated with these storms are forecast to be associated with lighting and locally heavy rain. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php