Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 344 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 12Z Fri May 31 2024 - 12Z Sun Jun 02 2024 ...Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall potential across mid-section of the country this weekend... ...Heat Risk continues over far southern Texas... Southern stream shortwave energy will be the catalyst for severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall potential across parts of the Central U.S. this weekend. Today a complex of thunderstorms will propagate from the Central/Southern High Plains across northern and eastern Texas, followed by another round of storms which will develop and move into parts of Arkansas and southern Missouri this evening. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms for these events with wind damage and an isolated tornado being the main hazard threats. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible over the Central High Plains. There's also a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over portions of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and eastern Oklahoma/Texas. There's still plenty of uncertainty as to where exactly storms will initiate and be most impactful. The focus for showers and thunderstorms shifts into the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Saturday. Another complex of storms may propagate into the central Gulf Coast beginning in the morning. Some of these storms may be efficient enough rain producers to warrant another Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall over much of Mississippi and Alabama. The Storm Prediction Center has another Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms along the Central to Southern High Plains where supercells capable of producing severe wind, hail and a couple of brief tornadoes could impact the region Saturday afternoon. Elsewhere, heat risk continues to be a concern over south Texas through the weekend. Convection over the Central U.S. will lead to below average high temperatures today. Troughing in the West will support above average temperatures across much of the region this weekend. A deep upper-level low will arrive over the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, bringing with it the potential for heavy rainfall. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php