Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 PM EDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 00Z Tue Jun 04 2024 - 00Z Thu Jun 06 2024 ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday and over the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains on Tuesday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region, Upper Mississippi Valley, Central/Southern Plains; and Middle/Lower Mississippi on Monday and the Upper /Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, Southern Plains on Tuesday... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings, Excessive Heat Watches, and Heat Advisories over Central/Southern California and Southwest and Heat Advisories over western/southern Texas... A front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Northern/Central High Plains and then southwestward to the Great Basin will move eastward to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains by Wednesday. The front will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of southern Wisconsin and northwestern Illinois. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over northwestern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Therefore, through Tuesday morning, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Upper-level energy east of the dryline will also create showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there is an added threat of hail, two inches or greater over north-central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. Likewise, the showers and thunderstorms will develop heavy rain over parts of the Central/ Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Tuesday, a reinforcing cold front will move out of the Northern Rockies and merge with the front over the Mississippi Valley, producing showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain over the Upper/Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Wednesday, the threat of excessive rainfall will decrease slightly over the Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Lower Mississippi Valley, Southern Plains, Central/Southern Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over the region on Wednesday. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Also, on Wednesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms will end. However, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the eastern third of the lower forty-eight states. Meanwhile, on Monday, rain and snow melt will produce heavy runoff over parts of the Northwest and Northern Intermountain Region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. In addition, early Tuesday, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest and inland to the Northern Intermountain Region and weaken by Wednesday. The system will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain Region. Furthermore, a developing upper-level ridging will build over California and continue over southern/western Texas, aiding in spawning Excessive Heat Warnings, Excessive Heat Watches, and Heat Advisories over Central/Southern California and western/southern Texas and Central California. Moreover, the ridging will create the first round of dangerous heat this season. The hottest temperatures so far for the West will build in California and the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the heat will create record-breaking daily high temperatures for portions of Californiaâ€s Central Valley. Be sure to break your heat exposure by avoiding outdoor time at the hottest times of the day. Check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php