Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 AM EDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 09 2024 - 12Z Tue Jun 11 2024 ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains on Monday... ...There are Heat Advisories over parts of western Texas... A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Tennessee Valley and then westward to the Central Rockies will move eastward to off most of the Eastern Seaboard by Monday evening. Moisture pooling along the boundary will aid in creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over southern Missouri. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. Moreover, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along the front from the Southeast to the Northern Intermountain Region. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, lower Mississippi Valley, Southern Plains, Central Rockies, and the Northern Intermountain Region through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Meanwhile, a front over the Eastern Pacific will move inland to the Pacific Northwest/Central California by early Sunday afternoon. On Sunday, the boundary will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain Region. The front will continue to move eastward to the Northern Plains by Monday. The front will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of western South Dakota, northwestern Nebraska, and extreme eastern Montana/Wyoming. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains from Monday through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, the showers and thunderstorms will also cause heavy rain to develop over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley from Monday through Tuesday morning. In addition, the associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Furthermore, along the front over the Southern High Plains, showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to develop over parts of the region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern High Plains from Monday through Tuesday morning. In addition, the associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Elsewhere, tropical moisture and upper-level impulses will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southern Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of southern Florida from Monday through Tuesday morning. In addition, the associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Moreover, upper-level energy over the Great Lakes/Northeast will help produce rain over parts of the Great Lakes and the Northeast through Monday night. Furthermore, upper-level ridging over Texas helps spawn Heat Advisories over parts of western Texas. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php