Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 403 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 11 2024 - 12Z Thu Jun 13 2024 ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains on Tuesday and over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern tip of Florida through Wednesday... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over Northern/Central California, Southwest, and western Texas on Tuesday... A front extending from the Southeast across the Gulf Coast into the Southern Plains will make the eastern portion quasi-stationary over the Southeast. At the same time, the western half dissipates on Wednesday. The half of the west of the boundary will aid in creating showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of south-central Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the eastern portion of the front. The combination of tropical moisture and upper-level impulses will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southern Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall on Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Also, showers and thunderstorms will develop along parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast. In addition, the tropical moisture will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southern Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, an upper-level low over the Northeast will help develop rain with daytime-embedded thunderstorms over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Elsewhere, another front over the Upper Mississippi Valley extending southwestward to the Central Rockies/Great Basin will move eastward to the Great Lakes and dissipate by Wednesday evening. On Tuesday, the front will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes into the Central Plains and Central Rockies. On Wednesday, moisture pooling along the boundary will create showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an added threat of hail, two inches or greater, over the region. Further, showers and thunderstorms will develop from the Gulf Coast to the Southern High Plains on Wednesday. Furthermore, upper-level ridging will build over California and the Southwest on Tuesday, and a subtropical high will develop over North-Central Mexico, prompting Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories over Northern/Central California and Southwest and Excessive Heat Watches in western Texas. Residents and individuals involved in outdoor activities must stay informed and take necessary precautions. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php