Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 257 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 00Z Wed Jun 12 2024 - 00Z Fri Jun 14 2024 ...A prolonged heavy to Excessive Rainfall event will continue across southern Florida through the end of the work week... ...Severe Storms possible over parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through mid-week... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over Northern/Central California, Southwest, and western Texas on Tuesday... Shortwave energy responsible for this afternoon/evening's thunderstorm activity over parts of south-central Texas, where a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect, will go on to reinforce heavy rainfall across southern Florida this week. The severe threat in Texas will be related to a MCS that will propagate into a moist and unstable environment this afternoon/early evening. The main threat from this cluster of storms will be a severe-wind risk. Mid-level energy cycling through the southern periphery of a parent low will influence severe thunderstorm potential across the Upper Midwest on Wednesday afternoon/early evening and then another chance over parts of the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Slight Risks of Severe Thunderstorms are in effect for those areas, with large hail and severe gusts possible. A few tornadoes may occur over the Upper Midwest tomorrow in addition to the hail and winds. Meanwhile, a quasi stationary surface front with emerging and retrograding shortwave energy aloft will support a prolonged heavy to excessive rainfall event across southern Florida for the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms will occur across other parts of the state to a lesser extent. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding are in effect for southern Florida through the end of the work week, where we are forecasting well over 7 inches of rain. Elsewhere, upper ridging will build over the Southwest while a mid-level low moves into southern California. This will support strong southerly flow leading to anomalously mild temperatures across much of the West over the next few days. Temperatures in the 90s to 100s will be between 15-25 degrees above average, particularly across parts of the Great Basin, and Intermountain West. There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches in effect for parts of California's Central Valley, the Southwest and western Texas. Little to no overnight relief, as far as temperatures go, will lead to potential impacts to those without adequate cooling/hydration. Below average temperatures across the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys will moderate as we head into late week. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php