Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 12 2024 - 12Z Fri Jun 14 2024 ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central Plains on Thursday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern tip of Florida through Friday morning... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories over northern/central California, Southwest, and western Texas on Wednesday... A front extending from the Northern Plains to the Northern Rockies and Great will move eastward to the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley then westward to the Central Rockies by Friday. The boundary will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of northern Minnesota. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added threat of large hail, two inches or greater over Minnesota to northwestern Iowa. Furthermore, a stationary front with waves will extend across northern Florida and across the Gulf Coast, and the combination of tropical moisture over Florida will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southern Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Also, showers and thunderstorms will develop along parts of the Western Gulf Coast and Central/Southern High Plains. Furthermore, a cold pool of air over New England will trigger daytime showers with embedded thunderstorms. On Thursday, the Midwest front will move over parts of the Ohio Valley, creating showers and severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central Plains from Thursday through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. The system will also produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast on Thursday evening into Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains. In addition, the tropical moisture will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southern Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall from Thursday into Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Elsewhere, onshore flow will contribute to the development of rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast on Friday morning. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will strengthen over California and the Southwest on Wednesday, and a subtropical high will form over North-Central Mexico, leading to Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over Northern/Central California and Southwest and Excessive Heat Watches in western Texas. It is crucial for residents and individuals involved in outdoor activities to stay informed and take immediate and necessary precautions. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php