Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 409 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 00Z Thu Jun 13 2024 - 00Z Sat Jun 15 2024 ...The threat for Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding continues over central and southern Florida through Friday... ...There's an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Thursday... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories over parts of the Southwest, and western Texas... A stationary boundary bisecting the Florida Peninsula will be the focus for thunderstorm activity across much of the state over the next couple of days. A complex of storms slowly moving through south-central Florida late this afternoon and into the early evening will produce heavy to excessive rainfall leading to significant flash flooding. Storms should move into the Keys tonight before reloading for another round of storms on Thursday and Friday. There are Slight Risks (at least 15%) in effect for parts of central/southern Florida with the potential for upgrades over the next couple of days. Digging mid-level energy will support thunderstorm activity across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate somewhere ahead of a cold front propagating through the Upper Midwest Thursday afternoon before moving into the eastern Iowa, northern Illinois/Indiana. Storms should congeal into an MCS and push farther into the Midwest Thursday night. There's an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms in southern Iowa, northwest Illinois and northern Missouri for late Thursday afternoon to early evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. This vort max will shift the convective threat into the interior Northeast on Friday afternoon and evening, where scattered storms with severe wind gusts will be possible. The upper low that has been spinning just off the coast of southern/Baja California will move into the Western U.S. on Thursday before influencing more thunderstorm activity over parts of the Central Plains this Friday. Storms are forecast to initiate on the lee side of the Central Rockies on Friday afternoon and propagate eastward into the Central Plains that evening. An upper-level ridge over the West will degrade and shift eastward as the closed low move into the region over the next 24 hours. Temperatures will moderate a bit, particularly over the Four Corners as well as California's central valley, where Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches will come to an end tonight. Anomalous temps should shift into the Northwest and northern tier late this week beneath the ridge. In the meantime, Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories remain in effect across parts of the Southwest into western Texas. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php