Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 16 2024 - 12Z Tue Jun 18 2024 ...Multiple rounds of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are expected to impact locations from the northern Plains to the upper Midwest for the next couple of days... ...Late-season wet snow is forecast for the northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday... ...A heat wave will quickly spread from the Plains today, into the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley on Monday, and into the Northeast on Tuesday... ...A plume of tropical moisture will bring an increasing threat of heavy rain and flash flooding to the central Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday, shifting toward the western Gulf Coast by Tuesday... As a high pressure system brings fair weather and a fresh dose of cooler than normal temperatures into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this weekend, a heat wave is emerging across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley ahead of a complex low pressure system developing over the northern Plains. A thunderstorm complex containing severe weather is in progress early this morning in association with the intensifying low pressure complex. The thunderstorms will quickly move northeast into southern Canada today but additional jet stream energy moving across the northern Rockies will help develop a new low pressure system over the central Plains later today. This system will rapidly develop and expand the next round of showers and thunderstorms across the northern Plains tonight, and heading into the upper Midwest on Monday. Severe thunderstorms with heavy downpours can be expected to accompany this round of inclement weather over the upper Midwest after the latest round of moderate to heavy rain and strong thunderstorms in the same area early this morning diminishes and moves east into the upper Great Lakes. By Tuesday, yet another upper trough with an energetic jet stream will move quickly into the Pacific Northwest. This system will usher a dose of even colder air through the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, where a round of late-season wet snow is expected to persist over the higher-elevations of the northern Rockies Monday into Tuesday. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for these higher-elevations. In addition, Freeze and Frost Warnings are in effect over portions of the interior Pacific Northwest. This energetic system will also bring quite a bit of wind across the Great Basin and the northern Rockies on Monday, reaching into the central Rockies and northern Plains by Tuesday morning. As the low pressure center over the central High Plains intensifies and heads northeast across the northern Plains, a renewed round of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will likely develop and impact the same general region of upper Midwest across north-central Minnesota by Tuesday morning, where a moderate risk of flash flooding is anticipated. In stark contrast to the cool/cold, windy, and even snowy weather across the Northwest, a heat wave is quickly emerging ahead of the low pressure complex from the central Plains, upper Midwest, and into the Ohio Valley. The heat will surge into the Northeast by Tuesday where high temperatures well up into the 90s are forecast as far north as Vermont and New Hampshire. Farther south from Central America across southern Florida and through the western Atlantic, a plume of tropical moisture lurking across these areas will shift westward into the Gulf of Mexico and begin to head toward the central Gulf Coast region late Sunday into Monday. Showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with this moisture plume are expected to bring an increasing threat of heavy rain first along the central Gulf Coast region during the next couple of days, with a gradual westward shift in the heavy rainfall axis toward the western Gulf Coast by Tuesday. Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the potential for a tropical cyclone to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the next few days. It appears that east to northeasterly winds will gradually strengthen especially along the western Gulf Coast region by Tuesday morning as pressure gradually falls in the Gulf of Mexico. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php