Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 17 2024 - 12Z Wed Jun 19 2024 ...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible today across the north-central Plains, shifting north into the northern Plains and northern Minnesota late tonight into Tuesday... ...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will shift farther south from the central Plains to the upper Midwest Tuesday night to Wednesday morning... ...A heat wave will expand from the central Plains across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and the Northeast today and remain across the Northeast through midweek... ...Heavy rain threat emerging along the central Gulf Coast today, following by an increasing heavy rain threat toward the Texas Gulf Coast later Tuesday and especially Wednesday... ...Late-season wet snow will persist across the high-elevations of the northern Rockies for the next couple of days... A very active weather pattern will continue for the next couple of days with additional cold air intrusion and jet stream energy traversing the northwestern U.S. The battle zone will continue to be over the north-central U.S. where a cluster of thunderstorms containing severe weather and heavy rain is expanding across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a low pressure system is forecast to develop over the central High Plains and intensify as it heads toward and reaches the upper Midwest by Tuesday morning. The threat of heavy rain and severe weather will lift farther north into the northern Plains and the upper Midwest on Tuesday. By Tuesday night, while the low pressure center will rapidly eject into southern Canada, a sharp front trailing south and southwest from the low will likely trigger an axis of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms from the central Plains to the upper Midwest from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The cold air intrusion and jet stream energy across the northwestern U.S. will also bring a round of late-season wet snow across the high-elevations of the northern Rockies through the next couple of days where Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect. In addition, this energetic system will also bring quite a bit of wind across the Great Basin and the northern Rockies today, reaching into the central Rockies and northern Plains by Tuesday morning behind a sharp cold front. In stark contrast to the cool/cold, windy, rainy and even snowy weather across the Northwest, a heat wave is quickly emerging ahead of the low pressure system from the central Plains, upper Midwest, and into the Ohio Valley. The heat will surge into the Northeast by Tuesday where high temperatures well up into the 90s are forecast as far north as Vermont and New Hampshire. By Wednesday afternoon, some locations in interior New England could see temperatures topping the century mark, which will break daily records at certain locations. Across the Four Corners region, critical fire danger conditions are anticipated today under persistently dry conditions fueled by gusty winds with the approach of the sharp front. Farther south from Central America across southern Florida and through the western Atlantic, a plume of tropical moisture lurking across these areas is beginning to head toward the central Gulf Coast region today. Showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with this moisture plume are expected to bring an increasing threat of heavy rain first along the central Gulf Coast region during the next couple of days, with a gradual westward shift in the heavy rainfall axis toward the western Gulf Coast later on Tuesday and especially by Wednesday. Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the potential for a tropical cyclone to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the next few days. It appears that east to northeasterly winds will gradually strengthen especially along the Louisiana and Texas Gulf Coasts through the next couple of days as pressure is forecast to fall gradually in the Gulf of Mexico. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php