Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 418 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 00Z Thu Jun 27 2024 - 00Z Sat Jun 29 2024 ...Monsoon-like conditions persist for the Four Corners Region... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across portions of the Northern/Central Plains on Thursday... An upper-level trough will move into the Canadian Maritimes, while an upper low glides across the Northwest and an upper ridge expands across the southern tier of the country late this week. Scattered thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop along a surface front extending from the Northeast/Ohio Valley down to the Lower Mississippi Valley and back up into the Great Plains. The Storm Prediction Center issued Slight Risks of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of the; Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic; ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley; and the Central/Southern High Plains tonight. Damaging winds will be the main concern in the Northeast while hail and gusty/damaging winds may cause issues in the High Plains. Some storms in the Ohio Valley could produce high enough rain rates to generate flash flooding tonight. Thus, there's a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall for portions of the favored terrain of the Central Appalachians, eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania and northwestern Ohio. Monsoonal moisture will continue flowing into the Four Corners region tonight with mid-level energy aloft enhancing potential for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. There's a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding for portions of northeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, as a result. The focus for Severe Weather and Flash Flooding shift into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley on Thursday. The once stationary front draped over the Great Plains will turn warm and move into the Northern Plains. A deepening surface low pressure system beneath a potent upper-level low will promote scattered thunderstorm activity across the Northern/Central Plains throughout the day. Storms should pick up in intensity by Thursday afternoon/evening. SPC issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms across portions of eastern Montana, western Dakotas, northeastern Wyoming, western Nebraska and northeast Colorado, where wind gusts exceeding 80 mph, large hail greater than 2.5 inches and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. There's isolated potential for Excessive Rainfall over parts of the Northern Plains and Lower Missouri Valley where Slight Risks are in effect. Monsoon conditions are expected to continue over the Four Corners with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in effect for portions of western Colorado down into northwestern/central New Mexico. Some slow moving pieces of mid-level energy will slowly make its way across the Carolina coast and promote Severe Storm potential early Thursday evening. Diffluent energy associated with the upper-level low moving through the Northern Plains will help advance the strong surface low pressure system into the Mississippi Valley on Friday. A rising warm front out of the south will promote additional thunderstorm activity across the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorm chances pick up over parts of the aforementioned areas Friday evening. Temperatures remain below average across the South while below average conditions expand over the Northern Plains behind the cold front this weekend. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php