Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 326 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 00Z Fri Jun 28 2024 - 00Z Sun Jun 30 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding expected across portions of the northern/central Plains today and into the Midwest Friday... ...Dangerously hot conditions will continue for parts of the South and Southeast... ...Monsoon-like conditions persist today in the Four Corners region... A strong upper level trough is swinging across the Pacific Northwest today and pushing a surface frontal system southeast across the Intermountain West into the northern and central Plains. Conditions will be supportive of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across the Plains, and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the northern and central Plains with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms today. Potential severe storm hazards will include very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Locally heavy downpours may lead to scattered instances of flash flooding across portions of the Plains, especially where soils are saturated from recent heavy rains. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook includes two Slight Risk areas (level 2/4) in the northern and central Plains where flash flooding will be most likely. The Excessive Rainfall Outlook for today also highlights a Slight Risk area (level 2/4) over the Four Corners region where persistent monsoon-like rains are ongoing. Precipitation chances will decrease on Friday for the Four Corners region as the frontal system approaches from the north, but the front is forecast to stall and lift back northwards as a warm front over the weekend. This will allow moisture to stream into the Southwest ahead of the front, continuing rain chances in portions of Arizona and New Mexico through the weekend. The frontal system will push across much of the Central U.S. and lift a warm front north across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. Precipitation chances will spread east as the system progresses, expanding the severe thunderstorm and flash flooding threats into portions of the Midwest. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms from the central Plains towards the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday, and WPC has a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall for this area as well. Potential storm hazards will be large hail, damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and locally heavy rain. This weekend, the broad frontal system will push into the eastern U.S. while the back end lifts north across the Intermountain West. Precipitation chances will extend from the Northeast down across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central/southern Plains and Southwest. The potential for severe weather will decrease as the upper level energy becomes less organized, and the Storm Prediction Center has only a small Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for much of Ohio and western Pennsylvania. The risk for flash flooding will decrease as well, and only isolated instances of flash flooding are anticipated along the frontal system. Temperature-wise, dangerously hot conditions will persist across parts of the South and Southeast through the weekend. High temperatures near 100 degrees will be common across the southern Plains and Texas, and high temperatures will likely reach above 90 degrees each day in much of the Southeast. High humidity will make these temperatures feel even hotter, and heat indices may reach as high as 105-110 degrees. Daily summertime convection will bring some relief to the Southeast, but mainly dry conditions are forecast across Texas through the weekend. Overnight lows will also remain above average in the 70s and 80s, providing little relief from the heat. Dolan Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php