Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 06 2024 - 12Z Mon Jul 08 2024 ...Extremely dangerous heat continues in the West, with heat persisting in the Eastern U.S.... ...Severe thunderstorms and Excessive rainfall possible for portions of the Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today, then the Central/Southern Plains on Sunday... ...Beryl is forecast to re-intensify over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today and threaten the western Gulf Coast of the U.S. beginning on Sunday... ...Critical Fire Weather possible over portions of the Upper Great Basin and Four Corners Regions this weekend... An amplified upper-level pattern over the CONUS will support record breaking heat in the West, severe weather and heavy to excessive rainfall over the Central U.S., and some more heat risk in the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast this weekend. A staunch upper ridge continues to promote an intense, widespread and long duration heat wave across the West. Widespread temperature records are expected to be tied or broken this weekend with highs in the upper 90s to 110s likely up and down the West Coast and portions of the Great Basin. These conditions will be extremely dangerous and potentially deadly if not taken seriously. The multi-day nature of the heat and record warm overnight temperatures will cause heat stress to build in people without adequate cooling and hydration. Excessive Heat Watches, Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect for much of the West. Hazardous heat will continue in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast today. Heat index values will approach or exceed 110 degrees at times. Heat Advisories stretch from upstate New York down the East Coast to the Alabama coast. The intense heat paired with dry windy conditions will support a Critical Risk of Fires over portions of southern Idaho today and southern Utah on Sunday. Elsewhere, an upper-level trough stationed over the Central U.S. will amplify and dig into the Southern Plains this weekend. At the surface, a pair of slow moving low pressure systems will focus areas of showers and thunderstorms across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of the Central Plains this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are expected from the Southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Mid-level energy propagating atop a moist, unstable environment and quasi-stationary front at the surface will support convection and locally heavy rainfall from central Texas through the Central Gulf Coast today. There's a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (at least 15%) over much of Louisiana. Another round of heavy rainfall could produce heavy to excessive rainfall for parts of central Oklahoma northern Texas and southern Kansas on Sunday. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for the aforementioned areas. Some more scattered to isolated storms will occur over portions of the Northeast today with potential for isolated Flash Flooding. Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to intensify as it moves through the western Gulf of Mexico today. Beryl is forecast to strengthen into a Hurricane on Sunday night before making landfall somewhere along the Texas Coast. The exact location of Beryl's landfall is uncertain at this point but what's most important is that heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are expected for much of the state's coastline and portions of the central Gulf Coast beginning tonight into Sunday. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest Beryl forecast track and intensity. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php