Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 00Z Sun Jul 07 2024 - 00Z Tue Jul 09 2024 ...Extremely dangerous heat continues in the West as heat and humid persisting in the eastern U.S.... ...Focus of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall expected to shift south from the central Plains this evening into Oklahoma on Sunday... ...Beryl is forecast to re-intensify over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and make landfall as a hurricane around the central Texas coast on Monday... ...Critical fire danger spreading from the upper Great Basin toward the Four Corners for the remainder of the weekend... A relatively slow-moving weather pattern has already set up across the U.S. as the weekend progresses. This pattern, which features an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure in the western U.S. and a weaker ridge over the East Coast, will sustain a heatwave for much of the West Coast states while oppressive heat and humidity will continue along the Eastern Seaboard, down into the Southeast and Deep South. The staunch upper ridge in the western U.S. will sustain an intense, widespread and long duration heat wave for the West Coast. Widespread temperature records are expected to be tied or broken with highs in the upper 90s to 110s likely up and down the West Coast and portions of the Great Basin. High temperatures soaring into the 110s this afternoon over the Central Valley of California are expected to be slightly lower for the next couple of days. These conditions remain extremely dangerous and potentially deadly if not taken seriously. The multi-day nature of the heat and record warm overnight temperatures will cause heat stress to build in people without adequate cooling and hydration. Excessive Heat Watches, Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect for much of the West. Hazardous heat will continue in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast today. Heat index values approaching 110 degrees this afternoon in the Mid-Atlantic region will be lowered to near 100 degrees on Sunday as slightly drier air arrives behind a front. Heat Advisories stretch from upstate New York down the East Coast to the Alabama coast. Warm and humid air ahead of the front will support scattered thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic coastal plains into the Southeast for the next couple of days as the front stalls just east of the Appalachians. Meanwhile, the intense heat paired with dry windy conditions will support a Critical Risk of Fires over portions of southern Idaho today and southern Utah on Sunday. Over the mid-section of the country, a persistent upper-level trough will offer below normal temperatures for early July for much of the region. Upper-level disturbances digging southeastward from the northern/central Rockies behind the trough axis into Sunday will develop a cold front and a low pressure wave, leading to heavy showers and strong to severe storms to develop and expand over the south-central Plains. It appears that the focus of the most active thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will shift south from the Nebraska and Kansas this evening into mainly in Oklahoma on Sunday when flash flooding will be a concern. By Monday, the dynamics associated with the front is forecast to dip farther south into Texas as Hurricane Beryl is forecast to make landfall near the central Texas coast. Tropical Storm Beryl, currently located in the Gulf of Mexico, is forecast to intensify as it moves northwestward in the general direction of the Texas coast. Beryl is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Sunday before making landfall around the central Texas Coast on Monday. There remains some uncertainty on the forward speed of the tropical cyclone through the next couple of days as Beryl interacts with the upper-level trough in the mid-section of the country. Nevertheless, the outer rainbands associated with Beryl are forecast to reach much of the Texas coast on Sunday, with the intensity of the rain and wind increasing through Sunday night. Hurricane conditions can be expected to reach the central Texas coast on Monday with the heaviest rain falling near and just east of Beryl's track where 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches are expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Beryl's forecast track and intensity. Kong/Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php