Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 401 AM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 07 2024 - 12Z Tue Jul 09 2024 ...Beryl to bring significant impacts to the Texas coast beginning today before making landfall as a Hurricane tonight... ...Extremely dangerous heat wave continues in the West.... ...Focus of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall expected to shift south into Oklahoma today... ...Critical Fire Weather over portions of southern Utah... The upper pattern across the CONUS will consist of a dome of high pressure in the West, a digging trough in the Central U.S. and more ridging in the Southeast heading into the beginning of the work week. Beryl, which is currently a Tropical Storm, is forecast to strengthen to a Hurricane before making landfall early Monday morning. Tropical Storm force winds could develop as early as this evening for the upper Texas coast. Heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, as well as strong rip currents and coastal inundation from storm surge are the most likely impacts from Beryl. There's a Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding for portions of the central Texas Coast from Aransas up to Galveston County today. There's a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms along the middle to upper Texas coast with severe wind gusts, isolated to large hail and a few tornadoes possible. Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorm threats spread farther inland through the ArkLaTex on Monday. Another Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect from the central/northern Texas coast up into northeast Texas near the ArkLaTex. Hurricane, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for portions of the Texas Coast from South Padre Island up through the Houston metro area. For more information please refer to the National Hurricane Center. The extremely dangerous heat wave in the West is forecast to continue and expand across the Northwest and into the Northern High Plains over the next few days. Dozens of daily record temperatures are forecast to be tied or broken into the work week. Highs in the 100s to 110s and lows in the 70s will represent 15-30 degree positive temperature anomalies. The multi-day nature of the heat and record warm overnight temperatures will cause heat stress to build in people without adequate cooling and hydration. In addition to the heat, dry and windy conditions over parts of southern Utah will contribute to a Critical Fire Weather Risk today. The digging upper trough over the Central U.S. will push a surface cold front south through the Central Plains today. An MCS is expected to develop between the cold front and a warm front lifting up from the Southern High Plains. This area of convergence will be ripe for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall this afternoon. There are Slight Risks of Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall over portions of northern Texas, central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, where the MCS is forecast to produce severe wind gusts and isolated flash flooding. A quasi-stationary surface front draped across the Southeast will focus scattered to isolated thunderstorm activity across the region over the next couple days. An isolated instance of flash flooding cannot be ruled out as a result. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php