Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 335 AM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 08 2024 - 12Z Wed Jul 10 2024 ...Hurricane Beryl to bring very heavy rain, damaging hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge to the Texas coast today... ...Extreme heat re-focuses over the Desert Southwest and interior Pacific Northwest; more heat and humidity for the Mid-Atlantic as well... Hurricane Beryl is expected to track up into the ArkLaTex today. Life-threatening storm surge and rip currents are likely along much of the Texas Coast, but especially from Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass. Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders. Damaging hurricane-force winds are also expected for portions of the Texas Coast around the time of Beryl's landfall this morning. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass. Severe thunderstorms are likely to occur from the eastern Texas/western Louisiana coast up through the ArkLaTex today, where a Slight Risk (level 2/5) and embedded Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) are in effect. Considerable flash and urban flooding are expected through tonight across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected. A Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for eastern Texas up into the ArkLaTex for today. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for more information on Beryl. A deep and well entrenched upper-level ridge stationed over the West will support the continuation of an extreme heat wave across the region early this week. High temperatures in the upper 90s to low 110s will represent 15-30 degree anomalies. Widespread high and low temperature records will likely be tied or broken over the next couple of days as a result of this unusual heat. The multi-day length and record warm overnight temperatures will continue to cause heat stress in people without adequate cooling and hydration. The heat wave is forecast to shift from California and Oregon north to Washington and east over the Great Basin and Arizona through mid-week. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms spread into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday as Beryl transitions into a Post-Tropical Cyclone. There's a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall over portions of northern Arkansas through southeastern Missouri, far western Kentucky, southern/central Illinois and far western Indiana. The cold front attached to Beryl will become quasi-stationary over portions of the central Gulf Coast and support training rainfall on Tuesday. Thus, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for parts of Louisiana's central coastline. Heat and humidity begin to build over the Mid-Atlantic today as the upper trough that will eventually pick up Beryl directs moisture and warm air northward across the East Coast. Strong southerly flow and clouds will contribute to warm overnight temperatures in the 70s. These temperatures will likely tie or break existing records across much of the Appalachians and East Coast through midweek. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php