Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Jul 10 2024 - 12Z Fri Jul 12 2024 ...Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl to bring Severe Thunderstorms, heavy rain and flooding to parts of the Midwest, eastern Great Lakes, and Northeast today... ...Dangerous heat and record high temperatures to continue for much of the West through the end of the work week... ...Major to Extreme HeatRisk over portions of the East Coast today... Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue northeastward through Ohio and into Ontario and rainfall will increase over northern areas of New York into New England. Thunderstorms could be severe in some parts of the Lower Great Lakes/interior Northeast, with some tornado potential. The Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for these areas as a result. The flash flooding threat will be greater over parts of northeastern New York into northern Vermont/New Hampshire, where a Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. Elsewhere, showers and some thunderstorms are possible over parts of New Mexico, along the Gulf Coast, and into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic. A Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect over portions of south-central New Mexico where heavy rainfall over the Sacramento Mountains and adjacent burn scars could trigger Flash Flooding. Things settle down considerably over the Northeast by Thursday. In the West, the intense heat will continue for at least a few more days, with temperatures well above normal and reaching or exceeding daily record highs over many locations from Mexico to Canada west of the Rockies. Excessive heat warnings or heat advisories are in effect for much of the area outside the high mountains, even including the foothills. Temperatures well into the 100s/110s will be commonplace, resulting in a widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk. In addition to the record high daily temperatures, the early morning lows are also expected to set records across large portions of the West over the coming few mornings. The multi-day length and record warm overnight temperatures will continue to cause heat stress to anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. Temperatures will be cooler than average along the path of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl thanks to overcast skies and rain. Ahead of its path, the East Coast will see another day of warm/hot temperatures well into the 90s from the Mid-Atlantic southward through the Carolinas. The high humidity values will result in heat index values over 100F for many of these areas. This will also promote many record high minimum temperatures that only dip into the mid/upper 70s at night (and near 80 in some urban centers such as Baltimore and Washington, D.C.). Heat advisories are in effect for much of the I-95 corridor between the Appalachians and the coast, while Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for Philadelphia and the surrounding counties. By Thursday, temperatures may cool by a couple degrees as the cold front associated with Beryl reaches the East Coast but may stall across the region. This could finally bring some much needed rain to the Mid-Atlantic, with isolated flash flooding possible over parts of the Virginia/Carolina Tidewater. Kebede/Fracasso Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php