Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 12 2024 - 12Z Sun Jul 14 2024 ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Friday and a Slight Risk over Southern New England on Saturday... ...Dangerous and record-breaking heat will continue for much of the West through Saturday, while sizzling temperatures will also begin to build across the Central Plains and Southeast... A weak front with tropical moisture will be quasi-stationary over parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast through Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near the boundary as the tropical moisture produces heavy rain over parts of the Easter Seaboard. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast through Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. In addition, on Friday, weak upper-level energy and a nearby front will help produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Likewise, upper-level energy over the Western and Central Gulf Coast will produce showers and thunderstorms. On Saturday, the weak front will dissipate over the Southeast while tropical moisture will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of Southern New England. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of Southern New England from Saturday through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Also, on Saturday, a front over the Northern High Plains will move across the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. The boundary will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over the region. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley from Saturday through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Texas on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level subtropical high over Central/Southern California into the Southwest and parts of the Great Basin will allow an extremely dangerous heat wave to persist over the area. The upper-level ridging will produce a near all-time high temperature record, and heat will continue over portions of the Southwest through Saturday. This long-duration heat wave remains extremely dangerous and deadly if not taken seriously. Dozens of daily record high temperatures are forecast over much of the West through Saturday. Hazardous heat will expand in coverage over portions of the central and eastern U.S. late this weekend. Moreover, moisture over the Southwest will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php