Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Valid 00Z Wed Jul 17 2024 - 00Z Fri Jul 19 2024 ...Relief in sight for recent record East coast heat but hot temps and dangerous heat will continue into Wednesday, while below average temperatures expected across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley... ...Heavy rains, isolated flooding possible along and ahead of the strong central to eastern front from the Southern Plains, Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and New England... ...Above average temperatures expected west of the Rockies to the West Coast, along with wildfire risks... The mid to upper level flow across the Lower 48 will become increasingly amplified over the next few days, with a building ridge from the Southwest into the Rockies and Great Basin, while an amplified trof over southern Canada pushes east southeastward into the East. This amplified upper trof will be responsible for pushing a strong cold front southeastward from the Great Lakes on Tuesday, into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday and across the Lower Mississippi Valley/South and Southeast on Thursday. This front will bring an end to the recent run of record high temperatures that have occurred across portions of the East over the past few days. While Wednesday will still be a hot day from the Southern Plains, across the South, Southeast and East coast, high temperatures are not expected to break any records. There will, however, be one more morning of widespread record high minimum temperatures on Wednesday morning stretching from the Lower Mississippi Valley, across the South, Southeast and along much of the East coast. This will exacerbate the effects from the current very hot conditions as little overnight relief is expected. Currently over 130 million people are under some form of heat warning, advisory or watch from the East Coast, across the South, Southern Plains and portions of the Northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. While record highs may be diminishing on Wednesday, the combination of another day of heat and high humidities will continue to produce life threatening conditions. In the wake of this strong front pushing through the central to eastern U.S., high temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be below average across the Northern to Central Plains into the Upper to Mid Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Mid West, with these below average temperatures spreading into the Tennessee Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains on Thursday. In addition to the strong cold front bringing some much needed temperature relief to the central and eastern U.S., the front will also act as a focusing mechanism for widespread thunderstorm activity over the next two days. Above average levels of moisture are in place ahead of this front which will result in the potential for heavy rains, isolated flash flooding and severe weather from portions of the Central to Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night and then over a very large region on Wednesday stretching from New England into the Mid-Atlantic, Central to Southern Appalachians, Southeast, South, Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southern Plains. Rains that do fall across the Mid-Atlantic, Central to Southern Appalachians, Upper Tennessee Valley, Southeast and South are much needed as these regions have seen much below average precipitation this summer and are currently experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions. While areas across the central to eastern U.S. will be seeing relief from the heat over the next two days, above average temperatures will remain in place for areas to the west of the Rockies to the West coast. While highs over the next few days are not expected to be record breakers, temperatures will still be anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees above average across these areas, with no end in sight for this above average temperatures regime. Little in the way of rainfall expected, save for some scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms for portions of the Southwest into the Southern to Central Rockies. Given the dry conditions, hot temps and low relative humidities, fire risks will continue across large portions of the West over the next few days. Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php