Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 332 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Valid 00Z Thu Jul 18 2024 - 00Z Sat Jul 20 2024 ...Gradually progressing cold front to spark scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Southern Tier and East over the next few days... ...Heavy rain and severe weather possible throughout the southern Rockies and High Plains... ...Excessive heat to confine to parts of the West and Southeast by the end of the week... A cold front stretching front the lower Great Lakes/interior Northeast to the southern Plains this afternoon is aiding in producing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity that spans across much of the south-central and eastern United States. Some storms that are able to take advantage of ample atmospheric moisture content and instability could produce damaging wind gusts and intense rainfall rates. One part of the country with greater chances for potent thunderstorms through this evening is the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, where a Slight Risk of both severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall exists. By Thursday, the aforementioned cold front is forecast to sink southward and shift the scattered thunderstorm potential to the southern Mid-Atlantic for the end of the week. The eastern Carolinas can expect the greatest potential for thunderstorms containing heavy rainfall. Flash flooding is also a concern over parts of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley through Friday along the same cold front as it slides towards the central/western Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing several inches of rain in a short period of time, particularly throughout eastern portions of the Red River Valley. Heavy rain and isolated to scattered flash flood chances shift towards the central Gulf Coast and Southeast by Friday as the frontal boundary stalls over the region. Residents are reminded to have multiple ways to receive warnings should severe weather strike and never drive through flooded roadways. Active weather is also anticipated to continue throughout the High Plains and into the southern Rockies, with numerous thunderstorms and the potential for flash flooding. Ample atmospheric moisture content and a lingering frontal boundary will provide a focus for daily summer thunderstorm chances, with the greatest severe threat located over the High Plains and scattered flash flooding threat throughout the southern Rockies of New Mexico. Damaging wind gusts and hail could accompany storms over eastern Colorado through tonight. In order to highlight the flash flooding threat, Flood Watches are in effect over much of central and northeast New Mexico. The previously mentioned cold front dictating much of the active weather across the country will also provide some much needed relief from oppressive heat throughout most of the central and eastern U.S. this week. Average to below average high temperatures are forecast to spread from the Nation's Heartland to the East and Gulf Coast by Friday, with highs into the mid-90s confining to the Florida Peninsula. Meanwhile, potentially dangerous heat does remain a concern across parts of the West as upper ridging slowly builds over the region. Highs into the upper 90s and low 100s are possible as far north as the northern Great Basin and valley regions of the northern Rockies, which could be of increasing concern for buildings without adequate air conditioning. High temperatures in the triple digits are also likely by Friday in the Southwest and central California valleys. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php