Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 30 2024 - 12Z Thu Aug 01 2024 ...Daily scattered flash flooding and severe weather from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northern Plains/Midwest... ...Dangerous mid-summer heat wave to expand across the Central U.S. and Southeast; more hot weather across the West... An active, unsettled pattern will continue across the eastern half of the Lower 48 as an elongated frontal system with access to abundant moisture and instability leads to repeat bouts of thunderstorms through midweek. This will maintain a daily threat of scattered (level 2/5) flash flooding and severe weather from the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio/Tennessee Valley, Midwest, and Northern Plains through Thursday. Daily isolated flash flooding chances should also continue across the Southwest tied to the monsoon. Thunderstorms aside, heat will become the big story over the Central and Southeast U.S. this week as an upper-level high strengthens. Forecast high temperatures Monday and Tuesday are expected to soar into the triple digits over the Central Plains, with upper-90s to low 100s to the west over much of the High Plains, and mid-to upper 90s for the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley. High humidity values over the Mississippi Valley and eastern portions of the plains will lead to heat indices in the 105-110 degree range, potentially as high as 115 for some locations, with widespread Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories in place. Warm morning lows only dropping into the mid- to upper 70s will provide little relief from the heat overnight. This combination of hotter temperatures to the west, higher heat indices to the east, and the multi-day duration of this heat wave will increase the danger not only to more sensitive groups, but also the general public, particularly those without adequate air conditioning. West of the Continental Divide, a troughing pattern and associated cool weather over the West will give way to widespread warm weather by Thursday as a stationary Pacific front washes away beneath widespread height rises across the region. By Friday, we can expect high temperatures in the 90's and triple digits across much of the West which could challenge numerous records across the region. Unfortunately, smoke from area wildfires will also continue to plague parts of the West, particularly over portions of the northern Great Basin, resulting in poor air quality and areas of reduced visibility. Asherman/Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php