Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 428 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 00Z Wed Jul 31 2024 - 00Z Fri Aug 02 2024 ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday evening and Wednesday with a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley on Thursday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Tuesday evening and Wednesday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern New England and Southwest on Wednesday and over parts of the Ohio Valley on Thursday... ...There are Excessive Heat Watches over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Excessive Heat Warnings/Advisories over parts of the Central/Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the Southeast. A front with a wave of low pressure over the Northern High Plains will move slowly eastward to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes by Thursday. The associated boundary will aid in triggering showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Also, there is a threat of severe thunderstorm wind gust of 65 knots, or greater over parts of the Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley and hail two inches, or greater over parts of the Central Plains. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. A second area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over parts of the Northern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. As the wave of low-pressure moves eastward overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, the system will create showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Middle Mississippi Valley from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there is an increased threat of severe thunderstorms wind gust of 65 knots or greater over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. Additionally, there is a threat of hail two inches or greater over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of the Northern Plains, Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of these areas from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Moreover, upper-level energy and a plume of moisture moving over New England will produce areas of heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern New England from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Similarly, upper-level energy and a plume of moisture will create areas of heavy rain over parts of the Southwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Thursday, the wave of low pressure continues to move eastward, producing showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley. Therefore, on Thursday, the SPC issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Likewise, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Thursday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will build over the Pacific Northwest, spawning Excessive Heat Watches over parts of the region. The upper-level ridging will aid in creating intense and widespread heat across portions of the West late this week. High temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal are expected across the Northwest and Northern High Plains later this week, where several daily record high temperatures are forecast. Moreover, the upper-level high will develop over the central portion of the country, which will foster Excessive Heat Warnings/ Heat Advisories over parts of the Central/Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the Southeast. The associated dangerous heat, with high temperatures exceeding 100F and heat indices near 110F, persists over the South-Central Plains and Mid-South through Thursday. Multiple days of Major to Extreme HeatRisk are forecast for portions of the southern Plains to the Southeast. These levels of heat mean health impacts become more likely in general, and may occur in ANYONE without adequate hydration or cooling. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php