Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 347 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 12Z Sun Aug 04 2024 - 12Z Tue Aug 06 2024 ...Tropical Storm Debby is expected to cause considerable Flash and Urban Flooding, life-threatening storm surge, and strong winds across portions of Florida and the Southeast Coast beginning today... ...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms possible from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes and into the interior Northeast on Monday and Tuesday... Tropical Storm Debby is currently forecast to strengthen while it tracks along Florida's Gulf Coast today. Debby may intensify into a Hurricane Monday morning before making landfall near Florida's Big Bend region, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life threatening storm-surge inundation is possible along portions of Florida's Gulf Coast from Aripeka to Indian Pass. Strong winds will likely cause significant damage to unprotected infrastructure along the storm's path. There's a potential for isolated tornadoes across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Monday, which is consistent with the Storm Prediction Center's convective outlooks, which depict Slight Risks (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms for those days. There is a Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding across portions of northwestern Florida today where the bulk of Debby's precip shield will cause impacts. Debbie is forecast to slow and cause considerable to historic Flash, Urban and river Flooding across portions of northern Florida through southeastern Georgia and into coastal South Carolina on Monday and Tuesday. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of coastal Georgia and South Carolina. For more information go to hurricanes.gov Elsewhere, a low pressure system, emerging from the Northern High Plains, will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Northern Plains tonight before spreading storms into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and interior Northeast on Monday. There's a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall as well as a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms over portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday. Downstream of this, the attendant stationary front draped across the interior Northeast will be the focus for more severe storms from Lake Erie to New England where another Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect. High temperatures will be below average across the northern tier states this week in response to unsettled weather associated with the aforementioned storms in the Northern Plains. Temperatures in the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley will be above average as southerly flow persists out ahead of the descending cold front to the north. Numerous warm overnight lows may tie or break existing records in the Desert Southwest over the next couple of nights. Monsoonal rain continues over portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region this week with isolated Flash Flooding possible over vulnerable surfaces including burn scars and slot canyons. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php