Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 412 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 00Z Tue Aug 06 2024 - 00Z Thu Aug 08 2024 ...Tropical Storm Debby is expected to cause potentially catastrophic Flash and Urban Flooding, life-threatening storm surge, and strong winds across portions of north Florida and the Southeast... ...There's potential for Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms across portions of the Upper Midwest, Lower Great Lakes and Northeast through Tuesday... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Central/Southeastern California and the Southwest and Heat Advisories over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley... Tropical storm Debby is located over north Florida as of 3 p.m. ET and is moving NNE at 7mph. Tropical storm warnings and storm surge warnings are in effect for northwestern Florida and the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines. In terms of severe weather impact, the Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) for portions of northern Florida through southern/coastal Georgia and into South Carolina's central coast, where the chance for tornadoes is greatest. The severe weather threat will persist into Tuesday for the potential of spin-up tornadoes. Debby is likely to produce potentially historic heavy rainfall across north Florida and southeast Georgia and South Carolina through Friday morning. Southeast Georgia and the Carolinas are forecast to receive 10-20 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum values of 30 ". Heavy rain will start to creep northward by the middle of the week for North Carolina to the Mid-Atlantic. Action should be taken to prep for impacts from high water. Tropical force storm winds may make travel difficult for first responders so action should be taken to protect life and property before inclement weather conditions arrive. For more information go to hurricanes.gov. A slow moving cold front extending from the Northern High Plains to the Northeast will be the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of Monday. Hail and damaging winds will be the biggest threat. Additionally, the front will sag southeast Tuesday and put areas along the I95 corridor and the Mid-Atlantic under the risk for flash flooding where thunderstorms train over the same area; more than a couple of inches of rain in a short amount of time could fall. There is a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall in effect for Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and there is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for northern Maryland to coastal New England. High temperatures will likely remain well below average across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest over the next several days, while Excessive Heat Risk grows across much of the southern tier of the U.S. from the Central Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley to California. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect across the Desert Southwest and portions of California's southern/central Valley through Tuesday as highs reach into the low 110s. Central Texas will see highs in the 100s, while the Gulf Coast high temperatures look to hover around the century mark into the middle of the week. High dewpoints will also contribute to heat stress. Stay hydrated and avoid working in the peak heating hours if able. Elsewhere, Monsoonal storms are likely to continue across the Southwest and Four Corners region this week with a Slight Risk of Excessive rainfall over far south-central Arizona on Tuesday. Kebede/Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php