Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Aug 06 2024 - 12Z Thu Aug 08 2024 ...Tropical Storm Debby is expected to cause potentially catastrophic Flash and Urban Flooding, life-threatening storm surge, and strong winds across portions of north Florida and the Southeast... ...There's potential for Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms across portions of the Northern High Plains, Midwest, Lower Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Central/Southeastern California and the Southwest; Heat Advisories over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Debby is expected to track up along the Southeast Coast over the next couple of days. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina through Friday will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall wil likely result in considerable flooding impacts from northern North Carolina through portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England through Sunday morning. Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall totals of 10-20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches. A High Risk (at least 70%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for parts of southeastern Georgia through eastern South Carolina and into far southeastern North Carolina today. On Wednesday, another High Risk will encircle portions of South Carolinas central coast up into southeastern North Carolina. For more information go to hurricanes.gov. A cold front will stall out over the Northeast and act as a focus for thunderstorms activity from the Ohio Valley through the northern Mid-Atlantic and into parts of the Tri-State area today. Tropical moisture from Debby will interact with the stationary front in the Northeast and likely generate heavy rainfall over parts of eastern Pennsylvania, northern Maryland, New Jersey, and the NYC metro area. A Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for much of the aforementioned areas save for northern Maryland. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of northern Ohio, Pennsylvania and western/northern New Jersey, where damaging wind gusts and hail are possible. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is also in effect for parts of southern New Jersey, northeastern Maryland and northern Deleware, where lingering showers may produce isolated flash flooding Wednesday morning before the stationary front turns cold and moves offshore. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php