Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 317 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 12Z Sat Aug 10 2024 - 12Z Mon Aug 12 2024 ...Unsettled weather extends from the Southwest to the central U.S. over the next few days, with chances for scattered flash flooding and severe thunderstorms... ...Lingering heavy rain potential exists across the eastern Carolinas this weekend... ...Above average temperatures continue across the West today before confining to the southern Plains and Gulf Coast by early next week... The upper level pattern and anomalous atmospheric moisture content in place across the Southwest and Plains will remain conducive for more active weather through this weekend. Starting with the Southwest, Four Corners, and southern/central Rockies, the main threat associated with developing thunderstorms will be related to intense rainfall rates and flash flooding. Uncertainty remains on where exactly the heaviest rainfall will occur, but sensitive terrain and burn scars are most likely to see impacts. This flash flooding threat also extends westward to the southern California ranges through Sunday, where slow-moving thunderstorms over complex terrain could lead to isolated flash flooding concerns. Shifting to the central and southern Plains, convection is expected to become more organized as a lingering frontal boundary provides a focus for heavy rainfall potential from Oklahoma to southern Missouri. After an initial round of storms over central Oklahoma tonight, another round of possibly slow-moving convection is expected Sunday night from southeast KS and northeast OK to the western Ozarks. Several inches of rainfall are possible within a short period of time, which could lead to scattered instances of flash flooding. Scattered thunderstorms are also forecast to extend throughout much of the central and northern Plains, but quick forward motions and lesser coverage should keep the flash flooding threat localized. In addition to heavy rainfall, these storms could contain isolated hail and damaging wind gusts. After recently getting doused by T.S. Debby with several days of tropical downpours, the eastern Carolinas may see additional bouts of heavy rainfall over the next few days as sufficient atmospheric moisture content remain in place along a stalled frontal boundary. This stationary front combined with diurnal sea breeze activity could spark numerous slow-moving thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall rates. Given most soils remain overly saturated across the Carolinas, the flash flooding threat will remain slightly elevated. Residents and visitors are advised to have multiple ways of receiving warnings and never drive through flooded roadways. Temperatures throughout the Lower 48 into the beginning of next week will feature widespread below average highs from the Plains to the Northeast underneath broad high pressure, with forecast high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. Summer heat will remain confined to the Southern Tier, including the Southwest today before a cooling trend commences. Meanwhile, oppressive heat and humidity will continue and rebuild across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast by Sunday and Monday as highs soar into the upper 90s and triple digits. This equates to around 10 degrees above the climatological mean for mid-August, but forecast highs at the moment don't appear to threaten any daily records. Elsewhere, continued dry conditions and ongoing wildfires will continue to produce elevated fire weather conditions and poor air quality across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Little changes in the overall weather pattern should maintain this environment. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php