Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 00Z Sun Aug 11 2024 - 00Z Tue Aug 13 2024 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday evening and Sunday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Eastern Great Basin/Southwest and a second area over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday... ...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies, Northern/Central High Plains, and the Great Basin on Saturday evening... ...There are Heat Advisories over parts of the Western Gulf Coast and Florida†A weak front lingers across the Mid-Atlantic to the Eastern Gulf Coast through Monday. Tropical moisture pools along the boundary will trigger showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of extreme southeastern Virginia, most of central/eastern North Carolina, and northeastern South Carolina. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Sunday, the lingering front and tropical moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of eastern North Carolina, eastern South Carolina, and extreme eastern Georgia. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, on Saturday, disorganized upper-level energy over the Northern Intermountain Region and Northern Rockies will trigger showers and strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies, Northern/Central High Plains, and the Great Basin. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the region through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Furthermore, monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest through late Saturday evening. In addition, weak upper-level energy will create showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains through Sunday morning. Moreover, a slight increase in monsoonal moisture and upper-level impulse will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of northwestern Arizona and southwestern Utah. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Eastern Great Basin/Southwest from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Further, on Sunday, another area of upper-level energy and a vigorous plume of moisture will trigger showers and thunderstorms over parts of eastern Kansas/ Oklahoma and southwestern Missouri/northwestern Arkansas. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Monday, showers and thunderstorms will continue over parts of the southwest eastern Great Basin and Central/Southern Rockies. Moreover, a wave of low pressure over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley will trigger showers and thunderstorms over the region. Elsewhere, on Saturday, parts of the Western Gulf Coast experienced high temperatures in the mid-90s and dew points in the mid-70s, prompting Heat Advisories. Similarly, high temperatures in the mid-90s and dew points in the mid-70s prompted Heat Advisories over Florida. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php