Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 413 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 00Z Mon Aug 12 2024 - 00Z Wed Aug 14 2024 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Eastern Great Basin/Southwest and a second area over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, with a third area over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and Tuesday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains on Sunday evening... ...There are Heat Advisories over parts of Florida, southeastern Georgia, and south-central Oklahoma/north-central Texas†A disorganized area of upper-level energy over the Northern Intermountain Region and Northern Rockies will trigger showers and strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the region through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of eastern Kansas/ Oklahoma and southwestern Missouri/northwestern Arkansas. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Moreover, a lingering front and tropical moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of eastern North Carolina, eastern South Carolina, and extreme eastern Georgia. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Furthermore, a slight increase in monsoonal moisture and upper-level impulse will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of northwestern Arizona and southern Utah. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Eastern Great Basin/Southwest through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Monday, the area of upper-level energy over the Middle Mississippi Valley and a vigorous plume of tropical moisture will trigger showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of extreme eastern Kansas/Oklahoma and southwestern Missouri/northwestern Arkansas. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas from Monday into Tuesday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Further, on Monday into Tuesday, monsoonal moisture and diurnal heating will produce showers and thunderstorms from the late afternoon to late evening over parts of the Southwest, eastern Great Basin, and Central Rockies. Elsewhere, parts of Florida, southeastern Georgia, and south-central Oklahoma/north-central Texas will experience high temperatures in the mid-90s and dew points in the mid-70s, prompting Heat Advisories. Additionally, ongoing wildfires in parts of Northern California and the Pacific Northwest have spawned Air Quality Alerts in parts of Northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern Intermountain Region. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php