Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 257 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Aug 12 2024 - 12Z Wed Aug 14 2024 ...Unsettled weather with chances for scattered flash flooding and damaging wind gusts stretches from the Intermountain West to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... ...Dangerous heat builds across the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast this week... ...Critical Fire Weather and poor air quality remains throughout parts of the Great Basin and Northwest... An active August weather pattern is expected to continue through at least midweek thanks in part to a stationary boundary stretching from the Southeast to the central Plains and an upper-level trough moving from the West Coast to the northern Rockies. Organized complexes of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to ride along and just north of the stationary front today from eastern Colorado to the Ozarks, with the main weather hazard associated with intense rainfall rates and scattered flash flooding. The heavy rainfall threat is then forecast to slide eastward each day this week, centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and Midwest by Wednesday. These areas coincide with a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall. Additionally, some of the stronger storms will have the potential to produce isolated hail and the potential for localized damaging wind gusts. Thunderstorms will also develop throughout parts of the Southwest, Intermountain West, and Rockies through Tuesday, producing an isolated flash flood threat for these regions as well. For the Southeast, the lingering frontal boundary will produce another few days with scattered thunderstorm chances overlapping with saturated ground conditions, particularly over the eastern Carolinas. Urban corridors and locations with poor drainage (even more degraded than usual due to recent heavy rain and flooding associated with T.S. Debby) will be most at risk. Residents and visitors are advised to have multiple ways of receiving warnings and never drive into flooded roadways. While most of the country enjoys a break from the oppressive summer heat, much of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast States will experience a warming trend back to uncomfortable conditions this week. Widespread highs into the upper 90s are forecast to stretch from the southern High Plains to the Florida Panhandle, with triple digits possible over portions of the Lone Star State. When combined with elevated humidity levels, heat indices may reach up to around the 110 degree mark. Overnight temperatures will not offer much relief as lows only dip into the upper 70s and low 80s. This level of heat affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration as denoted by Major to Extreme HeatRisk stretching from Oklahoma and Texas to the Gulf Coast and much of Florida by Wednesday. Gusty winds combined with dry terrain are forecast to create Critical Fire Weather across parts of northwest Nevada today. Meanwhile, ongoing wildfires will also continue to pump additional smoke into the atmosphere and produce poor air quality for much of the region. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php