Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 317 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Aug 14 2024 - 12Z Fri Aug 16 2024 ...Flash flooding and severe weather threat forecast to stretch from the central/northern Plains to the Midwest over the next few days... ...Potentially dangerous heat anticipated across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Gulf Coast... A developing storm system progressing from the central U.S. to the Great Lakes by the end of the week is expected to spark numerous showers and thunderstorms that could produce areas of hazardous weather conditions. As the area of low pressure begins to organize and consolidate over the northern Plains today, slow-moving thunderstorms may form across parts of central North Dakota while also containing intense rainfall rates. Additionally, a gradually lifting warm front extending from the central Plains to the Ozarks may produce another focus for heavy rainfall through tonight before the flash flooding threat centers over the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys on Thursday. Scattered flash flooding will be possible where the heaviest rainfall occurs, with urban areas and poor drainage locations most at risk. Severe weather will also remain possible today and extend into Thursday as developing thunderstorms grow upscale and potentially contain damaging wind gusts and large hail. The most likely regions at risk for severe weather include the mid-Missouri Valley region today and much of Missouri and Illinois on Thursday. A couple of tornadoes can't be ruled out as well. Elsewhere, an upper-level low displaced to the east of New England will aid in scattered thunderstorm activity throughout the region over the next couple of days. Further south, a cold front progressing over the Florida Peninsula and lingering near the central Gulf Coast will also produce areas of scattered summer convection. Be sure to remain weather aware if spending time outdoors and seek shelter should storms begin to produce lightning. Heat will remain and major weather story throughout much of the south-central U.S. through the end of this week and likely beyond. Widespread highs into the upper 90s and triple digits are forecast to span from the Southwest to the central Gulf Coast. Elevated humidity levels will soar heat indices up to around 110 degrees in the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and central Gulf Coast. Low temperatures are anticipated to only drop into the upper 70s and 80s for many locations, which could break several daily records. This level of heat can affect anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Therefore, it is imperative to follow proper heat safety and check on vulnerable individuals. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php