Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 00Z Sun Aug 18 2024 - 00Z Tue Aug 20 2024 ...Unsettled conditions for portions of the eastern U.S. with strong to severe thunderstorms along with areas of possible flash flooding... ...Dangerous heat and humidity will continue across the Southern Plains to the Gulf Coast through Monday... ...Fire weather concerns continue for western portions of the Great Basin this weekend while severe thunderstorm and flash flood potential exist from Utah into parts of Arizona... Locations near and ahead of a slow moving cold front in the Midwest will see increased potential for thunderstorms with coverage and intensity peaking in the afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley to much of the East Coast will be humid, containing the potential for slow moving storms capable of producing areas of flash flooding, along with severe weather, mainly in the form of damaging straight line winds. Similar threats will shift east for Sunday ahead of the cold front with flash flood and severe weather threats extending from the northern Mid-Atlantic region into the Southeast. By Monday, cooler and drier conditions will begin to spread east from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley as thunderstorm and flood risks continue to translate eastward. An upper level ridge will remain quasi-stationary to the south of the front over the southern High Plains through early next week. This feature will maintain high temperatures from the upper 90s to middle 100s from eastern New Mexico into Texas and the central Gulf Coast through Monday. Some daily record high temperatures could be broken across these same regions. People living in these locations should be aware of and plan for the heat by visiting heat.gov for more information. The western U.S. will also be fairly active over the next few days. A slow moving upper level trough off of the Pacific Northwest and ridge over the southern High Plains will focus anomalous moisture and a favorable atmospheric profile for flash flooding and severe straight line winds across portions of Utah and surrounding adjacent states. Farther west, drier conditions combined with gusty winds will promote a dangerous environment for the spreading of wildfires. The Storm Prediction Center has a Critical Risk for wildfires over south-central Nevada and southeastern Oregon today with similar locations at risk on Sunday, though the risk may be slightly lower on Sunday compared to today. Otto Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php