Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 343 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Aug 19 2024 - 12Z Wed Aug 21 2024 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of New England on Monday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains on Monday... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of the Southern Plains and Heat Advisories over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley... A front extending from the Northeast Coast across the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast Coast and then across the Gulf Coast State will move off most of the Eastern Seaboard while lingering over the Southeast by Wednesday. The boundary will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of New England as a plume of moisture feds into the area. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of New England through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and the Gulf Coast State. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Central Appalachians and Ohio Valley on Monday. In addition, on Monday, upper-level energy over the Central Rockies will interact with ample amounts of moisture to produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of eastern Colorado. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Furthermore, monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will create showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest, Eastern Great Basin, and Northern/Central Rockies from late afternoon into late evening on Monday. On Tuesday, the showers and thunderstorms will be over a much smaller area over the Southwest and adjacent regions. Additionally, disorganized upper-level energy will aid in triggering showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains. Further, on Tuesday, an upper-level low will move over parts of the Northeast, creating rain over parts of the area. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will also develop over parts of Florida. As the quasi-stationary front moves southward over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, the areas under Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories have reduced to parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Moreover, people spending more time or effort outdoors or in a building without cooling in the areas of heat warnings are still at an increased risk of heat-related illness. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php