Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 00Z Tue Aug 20 2024 - 00Z Thu Aug 22 2024 ...Another round of thunderstorms will bring the potential for flash flooding from the northern Mid-Atlantic coast into the Northeast this evening and overnight... ...Severe thunderstorms possible across the central to northern High Plains through Wednesday while flash flood potential remains over the Southwest... ...Record breaking heat expected in Texas while locations across the Midwest, Northeast and Northwest see below average temperatures... A cold front over the eastern U.S. will continue a slow but steady movement toward the east through Tuesday morning. Locations near and ahead of the front will maintain an increased risk of flash flooding from thunderstorms that repeat over the same location, due to anomalous moisture in place and favorable winds aloft. Drier and cooler air will filter in behind the cold front for Tuesday with high temperatures only in the 60s and 70s for many from the Midwest to northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. High temperature departures of 10 to 20 degrees below mid-late August averages are anticipated for New York and northern New England on Tuesday and Wednesday with cloud cover and rain showers keeping temperatures on the cool side. High pressure will dominate through mid-week from the Mississippi River to the Appalachians with a nearly stationary front situated to its south, extending northward...west of the surface ridge...into the High Plains. The central to northern High Plains will see threats for severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding through tonight as moisture flows around the west side of the ridge into the Plains and meets with favorable dynamics aloft. Similar severe weather threats will set up over the central to northern High Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. Flash flooding will remain possible for the Southwest with monsoonal moisture continuing to support localized slow moving but high rainfall producing thunderstorms through Wednesday. However, the flash flood threat areas look to be fairly contained to Arizona, Utah and Colorado beginning on Tuesday. Meanwhile to the south, a stubborn, slow moving ridge aloft over the southern High Plains will allow for hot and humid conditions to persist for at least the next few days from southern Oklahoma into much of Texas, south of a stationary front. Some daily record high temperatures could be met along with heat index values of 105 to near 115 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday from the Red River Valley to the Texas Gulf Coast, with the higher values more likely across the Texas Coastal Plain. Some of the heat is expected to spread into eastern New Mexico by the middle/end of the week. Otto Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php