Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 00Z Fri Aug 23 2024 - 00Z Sun Aug 25 2024 ...There's a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over much of the Four Corners region tonight... ...Record heat begins to relent over the Southern Plains this weekend... ...Critical Fire Risk and Red Flag Warnings in effect across much of the Great Basin... An upper-level ridge over the Great Plains will support monsoon storms in the Four Corners region and a waning heat wave in the Southern Plains. Ongoing monsoonal storms in the Four Corners are expected to continue into this evening. There's some Flash Flooding threat, as depicted by our Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall, over portions of northeastern Arizona, northwestern New Mexico, central-southern Utah, and southwestern Colorado. Slot Canyons are particularly vulnerable to Flash Flooding. The flash flooding threat dwindles a bit heading into the weekend as the upper-ridge shifts slightly eastward and an anomalous closed low enters the West. The upper ridge will begin to dislodge from its centered position over the Southern Plains and shift eastward this weekend. In the meantime, high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100s and lows in the 70s and low 80s will continue to plague much of western Texas/Oklahoma through Saturday. These conditions will tie or break existing temperature records. Things begin to moderate later this weekend when the upper ridge shifts begins to shift eastward. The deep and anomalous upper low will contribute to significantly below average temperatures for much of the West over the next couple of days. High temperatures in the 60s on Friday will represent 20-30 degree negative anomalies over portions of southwestern Oregon and northern California. Numerous minimum high temperature records will likely be tied or broken, particularly over sections of California's Central Valley and the Great Basin. In addition to the record cold in the West, the upper low will strengthen the wind field (surface winds approaching 25mph) in the Great Basin while maintaining the dry airmass in place, This will support a Critical Fire weather threat for portions of southern/eastern Nevada, southern Idaho and western Utah through Friday. Elsewhere tonight, some front range storms may develop and propagate from northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas where the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms depicted. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php