Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 338 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 00Z Mon Sep 02 2024 - 00Z Wed Sep 04 2024 ...Areas of heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding forecast throughout the south-central U.S. into early this week... ...Well above average, hot late-summer temperatures spread from the northwestern to north-central U.S. this holiday weekend... ...Critical Fire Weather for parts of the central Great Basin on Monday... Unsettled weather with daily chances for scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to impact the southern U.S. through early this week, with the potential for flash flooding where the heaviest rain occurs. A cold front sinking southward through Monday and eventually stalling on Tuesday in the Deep South will be the focus for developing showers and storms stretching between the southern High Plains and Southeast. This frontal boundary will interact with anomalous atmospheric moisture content lingering across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast as well as upper-level energy ejecting out of northern Mexico. These ingredients are expected to lead to thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall rates while also exhibiting slow forward speed across parts of central and northwest Texas on Labor Day, which has prompted a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall to be issued. Thunderstorms capable of producing localized flash flooding are also possible through early this week for the coastal Carolinas, Florida, and over the Gulf Coast region. Residents and visitors are reminded to remain weather ready and never drive across flooded roadways. Another part of the Nation with active and potentially hazardous weather conditions for the Labor Day holiday will be the Northwest and northern High Plains as scattered thunderstorms replace late-summer heat over the region today. Hot temperatures with highs into the upper 90s for much of the northern Great Basin today is forecast to shift east on Monday and Tuesday into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a weather system entering the Northwest today will spread isolated thunderstorm chances into the Great Basin and northern Rockies over the next few days. Lightning associated with storms could spark fires in areas with receptive fuels. Additionally, gusty winds impacting northeast California, northwest Nevada, and southeast Oregon on Labor Day has prompted a Critical Fire Weather Risk. Elsewhere, warm temperatures only slightly above average remain in place across the Southwest through Tuesday, while cool conditions are expected for the southern Plains due to ample cloud cover and rain chances. A strong high pressure system for this time of year is expected to settle over the Great Lakes on Monday and Northeast on Tuesday, ushering in a refreshing fall airmass between the Midwest and East Coast. Dry conditions and high temperatures into the 70s and low 80s will be widespread, with low temperatures dipping into the crisp 40s and 50s. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php