Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Sep 02 2024 - 12Z Wed Sep 04 2024 ...Areas of heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding forecast throughout the south-central U.S. over the next couple of days... ...Well above average, hot late-Summer temperatures spread from the northwestern to north-central U.S. through Tuesday... ...Critical Fire Weather for parts of the central Great Basin on Monday... Areas showers and thunderstorms will continue over the south-central U.S. the next couple of days with locally heavy rainfall expected. First, a cold front pushing into Texas this morning (Monday) will slow and become quasi-stationary by later tonight as an upper-level disturbance passes overhead, combining to help trigger numerous storms north of the boundary over the Texas Hill country, west Texas, and the Big Bend region. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) as continued storm development and heavy downpours may lead to some scattered flash flooding. A more localized threat over the Texas Hill country exists Tuesday, with a Slight Risk in place. Additional storms are expected to the east associated with an area of low pressure located just off the Texas coast. Another Slight Risk of Excessive rainfall has been introduced for today along the central Texas Gulf Coast where more heavy downpours and some scattered flash flooding will be possible. The widespread storms, rainfall, and clouds throughout the region will keep temperatures well below average, with many highs in the 70s across central and west Texas, and 80s further east towards the Gulf Coast. Some thunderstorms are also expected today ahead of this front further east along the coastal Carolinas southwest through Georgia towards the central Gulf Coast, with the focus shifting to the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday as the boundary slows and becomes quasi-stationary. Daily thunderstorm chances will continue for the Florida Peninsula as well. To the north, the passage of the cold front means some cooler temperatures for much of the eastern U.S. the next couple of days. Forecast highs range from the 60s and 70s for the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast; the 70s to low 80s from southern New England west through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys; and 80s from the Carolinas west through the Tennessee Valley. A taste of Fall is in store for many in the interior Northeast Tuesday morning as lows drop into the 40s. Highs will remain a bit warmer to the south, with 90s for the Lower Mississippi Valley and along the Gulf Coast. Much above average, hot late-Summer temperatures seen over the northwestern U.S. this weekend will spread into the northern High Plains today as a strong upper-level ridge over the West shifts eastward. Forecast highs are mainly in the 90s, with some upper 90s possible for the northern High Plains. An approaching Pacific system/associated surface cold front will help to bring some relief to the northwestern U.S. on Tuesday as highs drop into the 80s. In addition, the heat combined with dry conditions and increasing winds ahead of the approaching Pacific system have prompted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather from the Storm Prediction Center for much of the central Great Basin today. Another Critical Risk also exists over the Black Hills of South Dakota and northwestern Nebraska given a similar setup with dry conditions and increasing winds as a trough develops in the lee of the Rockies. Some very isolated showers and storms today over the Great Basin will become a bit more numerous into the northern Rockies on Tuesday as the frontal system pushes eastward. Increasing moisture may lead to some locally heavy rainfall and an isolated instance or two of flash flooding. Conditions will generally be dry and at or above average temperature-wise elsewhere in the West the next couple of days, with highs in the 90s for the central Great Basin and interior central California and 100s in the Desert Southwest. Some cooler temperatures over northern California into the Pacific Northwest today will begin to rebound on Tuesday as another ridge begins to build along the West Coast in the wake of the passing Pacific system. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php