Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 420 PM EDT Mon Sep 09 2024 Valid 00Z Tue Sep 10 2024 - 00Z Thu Sep 12 2024 ...Heavy rain and flash flooding expected throughout much of the Gulf Coast as Francine approaches by Midweek... ...Elevated to critical fire weather concerns across much of the West and Intermountain West... Tropical cyclone Francine has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories for the storm. A stationary front is draped over the northern Gulf of Mexico as well. The tropical system and disturbed weather associated with the front will bring threats for heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and strong winds to parts of the Gulf Coast through the middle of the week. There is a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect for the central Gulf Coast southward to the Texas coastline on Tuesday and a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) in effect across Louisiana and southern Mississippi on Wednesday. Some areas could see greater than 5 inches of rainfall over the next 3 days. Winds will also be a factor as Francine approaches, there is an increasing risk of hurricane-force winds in portions of southern Louisiana on Wednesday. There is also an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge inundation for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. Those in these areas should take precautions and follow advice from local officials. See the National Hurricane Center's latest advisory for more information on Francine. The heat out West should start to relax from record breaking high temperatures as upper level troughing and a couple of surface frontal systems approach the Pacific Coast. By Wednesday, the highs in the West should drop from the 90s and 80s to the 70s and 60s. However, the fire danger will be on the rise in the West with low relative humidity and gusty winds ahead of the front. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area of elevated fire weather over areas in the Intermountain West over the next couple of days. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in the Intermountain West and some isolated areas of flash flooding may occur with any locally heavy thunderstorms. The northern Plains and Great Basin will see warm temperatures shift westward. Temperatures will trend as much as 15 degrees above average as maximum temperatures reach the low to middle 90s. The temperatures in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley will begin to modify as the trough begins to leave the area and ridging builds in from the West. The highs will reach the middle 80s to low 90s across most of these areas and trend slightly above average for this time of the year. Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php