Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Sep 10 2024 - 12Z Thu Sep 12 2024 ...Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds, as well as the risk of considerable flash flooding are forecast across southern Louisiana on Wednesday as Francine approaches... ...Heavy rain expected to impact parts of the northern Rockies by midweek... ...Elevated to critical fire weather concerns across much of the Intermountain West... As of early this morning Tropical Storm Francine continues churning in the western Gulf of Mexico just to the southeast of Brownsville, Texas and moving on a gradual northward motion. Francine is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane before an expected landfall in southern Louisiana on Wednesday. As the system approaches the central Gulf Coast and eventually pushes inland across Louisiana, an increased threat of life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-fore winds, and considerable flash flooding is anticipated. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts up to 12 inches are forecast across much of central/eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday night. Francine is then forecast to continue its trek northward into the Mid-South on Thursday, while quickly weakening. However, additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns are possible into western Tennessee neighboring regions. A stationary front extending eastward from the center of the storm over the next few days will also focus areas of numerous, slow-moving thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall rates between the Florida Peninsula and central Gulf Coast. Residents are reminded to remain weather-ready and never drive across flooded roadways. The only other section of the Lower 48 expecting chances for heavy rain through midweek are parts the northern Rockies as a deep upper-level low crosses over the region. A few inches of rainfall throughout northwest Montana could lead to an increased risk of flash flooding on Wednesday, which has prompted a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall. This storm system will also produce gusty winds throughout the Intermountain West and lead to fire weather concerns. Specifically, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Critical Fire Weather area for much of Nevada and western Utah. Current and continued wildfire activity over the Great Basin will further add to the smokey skies noticeable throughout the northern Plains, Midwest, and parts of the Ohio/Tennessee valleys. High temperatures will remain above average average and into potentially dangerous levels across parts of southern California and the Southwest today before a quick cooldown commences by midweek. Meanwhile, upper ridging in the north-central U.S. is expected to produce more summer-like afternoon temperatures into the upper 80s and low 90s as far north as the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Thursday. These temperatures equate to around 10 to 20 degrees above average, but are not expected to break many daily records. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php