Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 401 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 00Z Wed Sep 11 2024 - 00Z Fri Sep 13 2024 ...Francine is forecast to make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday with hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge and torrential rainfall up into the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through Thursday... ...A round of moderate to heavy rain with high-elevation snow for the northern Rockies late Wednesday into Thursday night... ...Elevated to critical fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin and portions of the High Plains... As a ridge of high pressure continues to deliver fine and pleasant fall-like weather for the East Coast and toward the Ohio Valley, the threat of a hurricane continues to be looming along the western to central Gulf Coast. Tropical Storm Francine continues to churn and move northeastward across the western Gulf of Mexico not too far from northeastern Mexico and the southern tip of Texas. Although Francine has not intensified as quickly as expected since yesterday afternoon, the tropical storm is forecast to gain strength as it moves over very warm waters and reaches hurricane strength before making landfall on the Louisiana coast on Wednesday. This will bring an increasing threat of life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-fore winds, and considerable flash flooding during the latter half of Wednesday for the Louisiana coast especially near and to the east of where the eye of Francine makes landfall. Francine is then forecast to interact with a coastal front as it tracks more toward the north further up the lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday and quickly weakens. Francine's interaction with the front and an associated upper-level jet stream will also result in its gradual lost of tropical characteristic as it moves farther inland. The heavy rainfall associated with Francine will then shift farther away from Francine's center, with the threat of flash flooding focusing farther north up the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. Farther east from the central Gulf Coast into the western Florida Panhandle, strong to severe thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall rates can be expected to develop on Wednesday ahead of a warm front and forming cold front. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts up to 12 inches are expected across much of central to eastern half of Louisiana and up into Mississippi through Thursday. Residents are reminded to remain weather-ready and never drive across flooded roadways. Meanwhile, a low pressure system approaching the Pacific Northwest will bring a round of rainfall farther inland through tonight. This system will then bring a round of moderate to heavy rain with high-elevation snow for the northern Rockies late Wednesday into Thursday night as a deep upper-level low brings a surge of colder air across the region. A few inches of rainfall throughout northwest Montana could lead to an increased risk of flash flooding later on Wednesday, which has prompted a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall. This storm system will also produce gusty winds throughout the Intermountain West and lead to fire weather concerns. Specifically, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Critical Fire Weather area for much of Nevada and western Utah. Current and continued wildfire activity over the Great Basin will further add to the smokey skies noticeable throughout the northern Plains, Midwest, and parts of the Ohio/Tennessee valleys. An elevated fire danger is forecast for portions of the High Plains Wednesday night/early Thursday. High temperatures will remain above average average and into potentially dangerous levels across parts of southern California and the Southwest today before a quick cooldown commences by midweek. Meanwhile, upper ridging in the north-central U.S. is expected to produce more summer-like afternoon temperatures into the upper 80s and low 90s as far north as the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Thursday. These temperatures equate to around 10 to 20 degrees above average, but are not expected to break many daily records. Kong/Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php