Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 00Z Thu Sep 12 2024 - 00Z Sat Sep 14 2024 ...Hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge imminent along the Louisiana coast as Francine makes landfall... ...Torrential rainfall from Francine will spread up the Mississippi Valley while severe weather threat shifts east into the Florida Panhandle... ...A round of moderate to heavy rain with high-elevation snow will move across the northern Rockies... ...Elevated to critical fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin and portions of the High Plains... As a large area of high pressure continues to provide fine weather from the Plains to the East Coast, Hurricane Francine in the Gulf of Mexico is poised to make landfall on the Louisiana coast late this afternoon. Spiral rainbands associated with the core of Francine have already overspread the eastern half of Louisiana with winds continue to strengthen. Hurricane conditions can be expected to impact the coastal sections as the eyewall of Francine arrives with life-threatening storm surge. Farther east into southern Mississippi/Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle, a threat of severe thunderstorms with embedded tornadoes is anticipated ahead of a coastal front lifting northward from the Gulf of Mexico. As Francine makes landfall and heads farther inland, the tropical cyclone will interact with the cooler and drier air mass that has been feeding southward from the large high pressure system to the north. Francine's interaction with the cool air mass and an associated upper-level jet stream will result in its gradual lost of tropical characteristic as it moves farther inland. The heavy rainfall associated with Francine will then shift farther away from Francine's center, with the threat of flash flooding focusing farther north up the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. By Friday, Francine is expected to transform into a post-tropical cyclone as it begins to stall near/over the Ozarks and gradually dissipates. The focus will shift farther east from the Deep South into the Southeast and down toward the Florida Panhandle for possible severe thunderstorms ahead of a lifting warm front. In total, Francine is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches for the central/eastern Gulf Coast through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. As Francine pushes northward into the Mid-South and weakens by the end of the week, additional heavy rain is possible and could lead to scattered instances of flash flooding. Additionally, a lingering frontal boundary draped across the Florida Peninsula could lead to localized flash flooding concerns over the next few days. Residents under hurricane-related warnings should follow advice of local officials, including evacuation orders, and never drive across flooded roadways. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough currently moving onshore into the Pacific Northwest will bring a round of moderate to heavy rain with high-elevation snow for the northern Rockies through Thursday night as the deepening upper-level trough brings a surge of colder air across the region. Most of the impactful precipitation will be confined to the northern Rockies and the High Plains of Montana. A few inches of rainfall could produce flooding concerns throughout northwest Montana, prompting a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall both through Thursday. Snow levels dropping to around 7,000-8000 feet may also create hazardous winter-like conditions for the highest elevations of Idaho and northwest Wyoming. The other aspect of this system will be associated with gusty winds and increased fire weather concerns throughout the Great Basin and High Plains. Strong winds combined with dry vegetation and low relative humidity are forecast to be more pronounced over the Great Basin today and increase the chances for erratic fire behavior. Additionally, elevated to critical fire weather also exists across the High Plains and is most apparent on Thursday as southerly winds increase in speed. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches have been issued throughout 10 states between California and Nebraska. Outdoor burning is not recommended throughout these regions and residents are reminded to not go near any wildfires as they can spread quickly. The gusty winds and fire weather danger will shift into the northern and central High Plains on Thursday and into Friday as a sharp front passes through and a couple of low pressure system develop. Otherwise, tranquil weather will prevail from the Great Lakes to much of the East under the large high pressure system. Well above average temperatures are expected to overspread the north-central U.S. before a warming trend is also noticeable across the southern Plains by Friday. Highs across the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes are forecast to reach into the upper 80s and low 90s, while upper 90s eventually return to the western half of Texas and eastern New Mexico. Kong/Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php