Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 345 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 12Z Thu Sep 12 2024 - 12Z Sat Sep 14 2024 ...Heavy rainfall from Francine will spread into the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast today while the severe weather threat shifts east into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle... ...A round of moderate to heavy rain and strong thunderstorms with move across the northern High Plains with high-elevation snow in the northern Rockies... ...Elevated to critical fire weather concerns extend across much of the High Plains and into portions of the central Great Basin... Tropical Storm Francine continues to weaken and lift north early this morning into southern Mississippi at the same time spreading gusty winds and heavy rain across the region. The system is forecast to lose remaining tropical characteristics later today as it pushes northward into the Mid-South and connects with nearby frontal boundaries, while still producing areas of locally heavy rain and chances for severe thunderstorms. Tornadoes will be the main severe weather hazard through tonight, potentially impacting parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle along a slow-moving warm front. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather for this region. The greatest threat for considerable flash flooding exists across parts of northern and central Alabama, where a slow-moving line of showers and thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall rates could linger for several hours and produce localized totals up to 10 inches. Heavy rain is also possible from northeast Arkansas through the Tennessee Valley and into the Florida Panhandle today. Looking ahead to the start of the weekend, showers and localized torrential downpours will remain possible throughout much of the Southeast as lingering tropical moisture and stationary frontal boundaries stay draped across the region. Residents are advised to have multiple ways of receiving warnings and never drive across flooded roadways. A potent storm system is also impacting parts of the West and High Plains as an area of low pressure organizes in eastern Montana today. Areas of heavy rain and severe weather are possible across the state. Gusty winds and large hail associated with thunderstorms are most likely to impact eastern Montana and far western North Dakota through tonight, with heavy rain a potential weather hazard in central/western Montana. Additionally, cool temperatures in the high elevations of the northern Rockies could lead to early-season mountain snowfall for western Montana and the greater Yellowstone National Park area. The other aspect of this system will correspond with strong southerly winds throughout the High Plains. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible, which could result in a few power outages. These strong winds will also increase the fire weather threat across the region as dry vegetation and low relative humidity create a ripe environment for erratic fire behavior. Red Flag Warnings and/or Wind Advisories span from southern Utah to North Dakota. Elsewhere, high pressure will keep much of the Great Lakes and Northeast dry as high temperatures increased into the 80s through the beginning of this weekend. Warm and dry weather will also be found throughout the Desert Southwest and southern Plains, with high temperatures into the mid-to-upper 90s. Conversely, below average temperatures in the wake of a cold front will be felt across much of the West to end the week. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php