Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 306 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 00Z Fri Sep 13 2024 - 00Z Sun Sep 15 2024 ...Francine will continue to weaken but remain a heavy rain and flash flood threat from the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast and a tornado threat for portions of the Southeast... ...Severe weather also possible across portions of the Northern Plains late Thursday into early Friday... ...An elevated to critical fire weather threat exists across the Central to Northern High Plains... ...Below average temperatures expected across the Southeast quarter of the nation, while much above average temperatures spread across the Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes into the Northeast... Francine will continue to weaken Thursday evening into Thursday night/early Friday morning as it slowly moves northward across northern Mississippi to the border area of Arkansas and Tennessee. The storm is not expected to move appreciably after that, remaining nearly stationary into the early weekend and eventually dissipating by late in the weekend. Francine will continue to be a heavy rain threat over the next few days as its slow motion helps to focus rainfall potential in similar areas from far northeast Arkansas/far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois/far western Kentucky, southeast through western to central Tennessee, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, western Georgia, into North Florida. Flood watches are currently in effect across these regions, affecting nearly 10 million people. In addition to the heavy rain and flooding potential, there will also be severe weather potential, especially to the southeast of the center of Francine, across areas of western to central Tennessee, Alabama, western Georgia into the Florida Panhandle and North Florida. Across these areas, the largest threat of severe weather will be from tornadoes that often occur on the east and southeast sides of tropical systems. As Francine weakens further this weekend and eventually dissipates, another area of low pressure will begin to develop along a stationary front off the Southeast coast. This may bring additional wet weather for next week across the Southeast. Much of the Southeast has been very dry recently with this area experiencing moderate to isolated severe drought conditions. This wet weather pattern will bring some relief to these drought conditions late this week into early next week. Active thunderstorms are also possible ahead of a slow moving cold front forecast to push eastward into the Northern to Central Plains Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. Thunderstorms across this area may produce severe weather with high winds and large hail being the greatest threat, with a lesser threat of tornadoes. Windy conditions ahead of this cold front across a region that has been very dry will support an elevated to critical fire weather threat across large sections of the Northern to Central Plains into the Central Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Red Flag Warnings are currently in effect across these areas, affecting over 5 millions people. In the areas of clouds and rain across the southeastern portion of the nation, high temperatures will likely be below average for the end of the week into this weekend. Much above average temperatures are on tap for the Plains, eastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, Northeast and New England. Record wise, a few record high temperatures are possible across Northwest and South Texas and southeast New Mexico Friday and Saturday. Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php