Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 408 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 00Z Sat Sep 14 2024 - 00Z Mon Sep 16 2024 ...Francine will continue to bring a heavy rain and flash flood threat to the Southeast over the next couple days... ...Above average temperatures will develop across the Central U.S. and Northeast... ... The Southwest will see increased precipitation chances and may see isolated flash flooding as the forecast remnant circulation of Tropical Cyclone Ileana approaches Baja California ... Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine continues to spin over Arkansas and bring stormy and wet conditions across much of the Southeast. Additionally, attached stationary fronts to the circulation are serving to focus lift and moisture in the atmosphere to produce potential for flooding rains. For the remainder of Friday, areas in Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia are under a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall with a Moderate Excessive Rainfall Outlook focused over north-central Alabama for enhanced flooding potential. North Florida will also see the potential for heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates could be 2-3 inches per hour in the unstable environment. The threat for flash flooding will remain for Saturday and Sunday with enhanced lift along Post-T.C. Francine and a lingering frontal boundary, but the remainder of Friday will see the biggest threat. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for severe storms with a couple of tornadoes possible during the rest of the day Friday with some shear in the atmosphere, but Saturday and Sunday will see general thunderstorms. The other big story-line will be the heat across the central and eastern U.S. as high pressure builds in. Texas will see high temperatures in the mid-upper 90s and some locations could break daily record high temperatures. The Midwest will see high temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. The central U.S. high temperatures are about 15-20 degrees above average for this time of the year for context. The eastern U.S. will also be warm with highs 10-15 degrees above average and reaching the low to mid 80s. Elsewhere across the country, a cold front will enter the Pacific Northwest and bring cooler, showery conditions for the weekend. The Southwest will see moisture enter the area Saturday and Sunday with the forecast remnants of Post-T.C. Ileana moving northwards towards Baja California. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is forecast for both Saturday and Sunday for New Mexico and Arizona as thunderstorms will be able to drop locally heavy rainfall and bring isolated flash flooding potential. Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php