Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 00Z Sun Sep 15 2024 - 00Z Tue Sep 17 2024 ...Moderate to heavy rain threat associated with the remnants of Francine slowly winds down across the interior South... ...A coastal storm could bring increasing wind and rain for the Carolinas late Sunday into Monday... ...A strong low pressure system will bring unsettled weather with high-elevation snow into the Sierra Nevada and Intermountain West beginning on Sunday... ...Well above average temperatures expected for the central U.S. and Northeast but well below average temperatures will surge into the West... A persistent high pressure system that has effectively blocked the northward progress of the tropical moisture associated with Francine will continue to deliver fine weather for the northeastern quadrant of the country for the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Meanwhile, the remnants of Francine will be sandwiched between the high pressure system and a slow-moving front near the Gulf Coast, keeping a threat of heavy rain and flash flooding into Sunday for much of Mississippi into southwestern Alabama. Overall, the remaining moisture associated with Francine will gradually be pushed farther south toward the central to eastern Gulf Coast during the next couple days, with the threat of flash flooding slowly decreasing over the interior South into Monday. The eastern Gulf Coast region will remain under a marginal risk of flash flooding through Monday. Meanwhile, the same high pressure system that has blocked Francine's tropical moisture from reaching farther inland will become instrumental in providing an environment for a coastal storm to form just off the coast of the Carolinas during the next couple of days. Under this slow-moving high pressure system, a broad fetch of northeasterly winds will be flowing over the relatively warm Gulf Stream off the East Coast of the U.S. through the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the possibility for a wave of low pressure currently forming on a stationary front to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics as this system begins to move generally north to northwestward toward land. This scenario would bring an increasing threat of wind and rain for the Carolinas late Sunday into Monday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty on the timing, intensity, and character of this system, so please regularly check the latest updates on this system during the next couple of days. In the West, an unsettled weather pattern is in store as a strong upper-level trough pushes a frontal system into the region. The system will move across northern California, the Great Basin, and the northern Rockies Sunday and Monday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will accompany this system, and there is a broad Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 1/4) in effect for portions of the northern Rockies and Great Basin on Monday. This system will also usher in well below normal temperatures, which will allow for wintry precipitation to fall at higher elevations. A Winter Weather Advisory is already in effect for portions of the Sierra Nevada where a few inches of snow may fall Sunday night and Monday. Precipitation chances will also increase across the Southwest/Four Corners region late this weekend into early next week as tropical moisture streams north ahead of Tropical Storm Ileana, which is forecast to lose tropical characteristics and dissipates in the Gulf of California by Monday. Temperatures for the remaining of this weekend will have a large range across the United States with well above average temperatures in the central U.S. and Northeast but well below average temperatures will be surging into the West with the arrival of the strong upper trough. High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s for the Central U.S. and Northeast through Monday, which is more than 15 degrees above average for some areas in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. High temperatures in the West will be near to slightly below average today, then drop to 15 to 25 degrees below average in Oregon, California, and Nevada by Monday. Highs in the 50s will be common in the Great Basin, and highs will likely only reach the 30s and 40s in the Sierra Nevada. Kong/Dolan Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php