Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 351 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Sep 16 2024 - 12Z Wed Sep 18 2024 ...Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring wind and heavy rain to the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... ...A strong upper low will bring unsettled weather and well below normal temperatures to the West with high elevation snow in the Sierra Nevada and Intermountain West... ...Severe thunderstorms possible for the Northern and Central High Plains Tuesday... While Francine's remnants have been dissipating over the Southeast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight has been strengthening off the Southeast Coast. This disturbance is forecast to bring gusty winds and heavy rain to portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic and dangerous coastal and beach conditions to much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The forward motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will be slowed down by strong high pressure over the Northeast, which will increase the chance of heavy rainfall totals in the Carolinas today. Flash flooding will be a concern, especially in the eastern Carolinas where the highest rainfall totals are forecast, and flooding could have locally significant impacts. This disturbance is forecast to gradually move north across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic, bringing a threat of locally heavy rainfall to the region mid-week. In the West, a deep upper low will bring unsettled weather and well below normal temperatures to the region this week. The upper low is accompanied by a strong surface frontal system that will push east across the Intermountain West today and into the Plains Tuesday afternoon. This system will bring widespread precipitation chances and gusty winds to much of the West. Precipitation will fall mainly in the form of showers and thunderstorms, but temperatures will be cold enough for the high elevations of the Sierra Nevada and Intermountain West to see some early season snow. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect through this evening for the Sierra Nevada above 8000 feet where up to 4 inches of snow may fall, and Wind Advisories are in effect through this evening for portions of the Southwest where wind gusts could exceed 45 mph. The surface low pressure system is forecast to strengthen in the lee of the Rockies over Wyoming and Montana, and will bring a threat of scattered severe thunderstorms to the northern and central High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted these areas with a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5), and the main storm hazards will be severe wind gusts and hail. Showers and thunderstorms will push east across the Plains Tuesday night and move towards the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Temperatures will have a broad range across the United States over the next few days. The deep upper low will result in well below normal temperatures in the West through at least mid-week, with the coldest anomalies over the Great Basin and California where high temperatures will be as low as 15-25 degrees below normal. On the flip side, temperatures will be well above normal in the Central U.S. and Northeast. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s and 90s for these regions. Below normal temperatures are also forecast for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic today and Tuesday due to expected precipitation and cloud cover, but temperatures should return to near normal for these regions by Wednesday. Dolan Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php