Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 341 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 00Z Mon Sep 23 2024 - 00Z Wed Sep 25 2024 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley and Southern Plains on Sunday... ...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains into Ohio Valley on Sunday and Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Monday... A slow-moving front extending from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley southwestward to the Southern Plains advances to the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley roughly southwestward to the Southern Plains by Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Southern High Plains. The showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over two areas. The first area of heavy rain will be over parts of the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. The second area of heavy rain will develop over parts of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Along the front showers, strong to severe thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Southern Plains through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. On Monday, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary from parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Central Appalachians, Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes, and into parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys from Monday through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Moderate to heavy rain will also develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Central Appalachians. On Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will continue along and near the front from parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and from the Central Gulf Coast to the Southern Plains. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php